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alex says...

Today's ecommerce market has revenues in the hundreds of billions and grows by ~10% a year compounding. It has settled into this rate from higher rates in the 1990s. To find another comparable market in terms of relentless growth you would have to look at the IT boom in the 1980s and 1990s. The market is quite frankly, HUGE, and growing relentlessly with no end in sight. 

However, there is a problem. As everyone gets more comfortable buying things online the demand for real technology to help evaluate products has not been serviced. Point blank: there has been little to no innovation in the space. Amazon has created efficiency around the actual purchasing process and warehouse/packaging/sending services. Their recommendation for "uniquely relevant" suggested products is also good. But technologies used today are derivative of those used in the 1990s. I would argue about 10% of customer needs are getting serviced. Specifically, the consistently finding the lowest price problem has been effectively solved by ecommerce search engines (like theFind, bizrate, Google Products). All these products do is aggregate affiliate market links. They do this very efficiently - almost always finding the best price. However, the 90% personalized product evaluation and individual analysis problem has not been solved.

Consumers are left to do their own hacky research on product review sites; reading product reviews and in the pinch literally just asking friends what is good. To add to matters, ecommerce search is broken. If I search for "Canon Digital Camera" on Amazon, I get 24,992 results. ( http://bit.ly/6g9aFR ) Are there really 24,992 Canon digital cameras? The tech sector has not employed enough computer science at this problem. Worst of all, a lot of times people are getting ripped off.

Ecommerce Scam Example:

Camera companies use a combination of consuming norms and lack of analysis tools to routinely exploit us. All camera companies currently sell a range of "entry-level cameras" all of which are similar in quality. However, these cameras sell for a range of $100-$350. What does the extra $250 give you? The answer is not much - a scammy amount of not much. Here the main difference is literally just the stock sensor. Sony sells one camera for $329 and another nearly identical camera for $114. The more expensive camera has 12 megapixels and the cheaper only 10 megapixels. However, anyone that knows about cameras knows that 10 megapixels is more than enough for 98% of casual users.

The scam here is that camera companies are exploiting assumptions. 3-4 years ago it was necessary to spend $300 to get a camera with a usable amount of megapixels. $300 used to buy about 6 megapixels which is sort of the line where having more gives you less per unit. This function decreases rapidly. Therefore a 10 megapixel camera is plenty. The marginal 2 megapixels from 10 to 12 are not worth $200. In fact they are basically worth nothing for a casual user. Amazon does not tell us this. Sony does not tell us this. No ecommerce company on the internet tells us this. This is straight away a market inefficiency. On value terms: this is an outright scam. Both parties assume because you spent $300 last time to get a reasonable camera that you will, out of habit, spend the same amount this time. Really they should inform you $114 will be enough, but they don't. Instead they profit-take. All the players get more money. Amazon can claim they're are agnostic. No one is really taking responsibility for saving your dollars. 

Overpriced casual use camera: http://bit.ly/5lbvZV
Affordable camera casual user should buy: http://bit.ly/8k77oh

This sort of  ecommerce scam creates a market opportunity. It's time for the balance of power here to be pushed to the consumers. There is no reason for anyone to getting ripped off. It's not 1999, it's 2009.


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Click here to download:
The_Ecommerce_Scam.zip (17 KB)


alex says...

When you make the decision to start a BIG technology company you are inherently making a somewhat visceral and violent decision that you have evaluated a market and that the key big players that are collecting dollars from this market are not adequately addressing the needs of the customers and in fact are only serving about 10% of the true needs of a market. If this is not the calculation I would argue you are then only planning on offering an incremental value proposition, which inherently is not a BIG tech play. Starting a BIG tech company takes an incredibly long period of time. 6-10 years in many cases (just to start). A great example is Google taking down Yahoo. Up until about 4-6 years into Google's existence it was unclear that Yahoo was even concerned about Google. They were concentrated on building a portal destination with rich content for viewers (the 10%). They failed to recognize the real value they were sitting on which was search and advertising (the 90%). Real technology companies then have to have this 90% insight and patient founders.

The big players have a huge initial advantage. Money, smart engineers, resources and time, but as a stranger from the North you have a few advantages:
  1. The established players (Romans) are likely in a mature phase which usually comes with the trappings of being overpaid and having a culture of status quo. Innovators quietly have already exited stage left in many cases. 
  2. The Romans don't necessarily have an ability to innovate quickly enough when they see you coming around the bend.
  3. When it comes time to fight your engineers/warriors are invigorated, while the larger players are playing defense. Engineers are the most important component of BIG tech companies. Large companies often (Ebay, Yahoo) commoditize their best engineers - encouraging much of the talent to leave. This commoditization of engineers is the equivalent of death punch to tech companies. 
  4. If you have something new it will be tough for established players to change their missions to do what you are doing. Being a 10, 20, 50BN company and admitting you are dead wrong is hard. 
The slow motion reference here comes back to the point that starting large technology companies take an incredible amount of time. Most people in Silicon Valley think in 4 year blocks. "I'll do this for 4 years and see where we are, hopefully we can sell or something...". This mentality is not sufficient to create something truly huge. Mark Zuckerberg has on a number of occasions, referenced the Fbook platform as evolving "over 30 years". This is an ideal outlook for creating powerful technology. The key is that technology often takes a long time to fully bloom - timeframes most people can't emotionally encapsulate. This is likely why most entrepreneurs aren't making huge plays. It all sounds difficult when you ask people one on one what their appetite is for working for long and so hard. 

Now to the sex. There is absolutely nothing at all sexy or sex-related about starting a BIG tech company. The processes are extremely slow and painful. This is a common message entrepreneurs that have pulled it off seem to mention first. 

Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/AlexdMoore


stephanie says...

I can't believe this movie is 15 years old, and that I first watched it almost five years ago.  I was reminded of it today when we were watching Chungking Express and I thought to myself, sure, I kind of like this movie but there was something about Fallen Angels, the sequel/companion film by Wong Kar Wai, that spoke to me.  Maybe because the characters are much more shockingly odd, and the film itself that much murkier, sad and ardent.

I don't remember a whole lot about the film (you can find an analysis of it here) except this one scene where Cherry and the Mute are sitting in a cafe after they've been chasing down her ex-boyfriend and Mute realizes he's falling in love with her.  I love the way the shot is set up, with hapless Cherry gazing obliviously in the other direction while Mute, whom we have come to know as someone unworthy of respect, yet whom we want to indulge despite ourselves, leans towards her and breathes her in with such dreamy enjoyment that you really wish she'd come to her senses already.  Meanwhile, the world behind them buzzes with activity, but you can't take your eyes off this quiet moment of stolen intimacy.

I don't think this scene is supposed to be taken literally, but I think it captures an element of misappropriate longing that anyone with a little wistful strangeness in them will recognize right away.  There's something about the bold, unrequited movement in this scene that I like very much. I screen-capped it for your viewing pleasure, followed by a very excellent fan-made vide o that centers on the weird but beautiful Takeshi Kaneshiro's character, the Mute.

Filed under: Celebrity Crushes, Movies & Television

guykawasaki says...

Is there a better way to delineate happiness than this? From the Federal Palace Restaurant in Hong Kong.

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You don’t have to figure out life all by yourself if you tap
http://life.alltop.com/


scobleizer says...

I love Chris Brogan's blog. He goes into how businesses can improve their use of Internet-based media, among other techniques they can use to improve their standing in the community and our trust in them. His book "Trust Agents" goes into how companies are doing just that.

Here we have a new trust agent to study. His name is Steve Kovak and he runs the teams at Ford that build safety features into their cars like radar systems and airbags and the like.

Of course, what did I do? I told him quickly I bought a Toyota Prius, a car I really love.

Now with some company representatives that would have gotten a snide remark. Look at how Steve Ballmer, Microsoft's CEO, publicly berated an employee for using an iPhone at this week's company meeting.

In fact, that's what I sort of expected from a Ford employee. Except you should look at how he did react

What did he do? He admitted he bought one too. Then he promptly praised it. Then he explained how his product was different. He also made sure to mention his company's advantages (that they've been doing this longer). All three got me to trust him. Well, as much as I'd trust anyone pitching a product.

But in the first video you get why he did that: he thinks these features are important, no matter what car you buy next. He's passionate and he has the data to show that these features will save lives.

It's why I talk with so many people who use other hosting companies and why I keep up to date on what they are doing better than Rackspace, who I work for. This is how you win trust and you turn people from Toyota fans into Ford fans.

I wonder what Chris Brogan thinks about how Steve Kovak handled himself?


garry says...

Thread was originally called Frintro (like “Friend” combined with “Intro) but decided to change its name in an arrangement that could set an unusual precedent for other start-ups. Thread.com was already taken, but they negotiated with the owner to lend it to them for two years. If they turned it in to a successful business, the original owner will take a share of the company. But if they don’t, the owner will get his address back.

Frinto raised $1.2MM from Sequoia and is in the current set of fbFund startups. This is a pretty ingenious arrangement, but as an entrepreneur it still pisses me off.


scobleizer says...

TechCrunch just published an interview Mike Arrington did with Google's CEO, Eric Schmidt, and one quote there caught my eye:

We don't want to work on problems that only affect a small number of people.

Ahh, that seals it, Google is the new Microsoft. See, when I worked at Microsoft I heard this kind of horsepucky all the time too. The executives there would only really get behind things that looked like they were billion dollar businesses and let me know it early and often. I remember talking with Steve Wozniak, co-founder of Apple, about this too. He wanted HP and Atari to market his newfangled personal computer. They told him to pound sand, which is a good thing because otherwise we wouldn't have Apple today.

The thing is, innovations usually come about when it doesn't seem like anyone is interested. Let's go back to 2006 when Twitter was first released. I remember showing it to other people. They thought it was the lamest thing they'd ever seen. See, no one was sitting around and saying "I have a problem, I need a way to blog but I want to be limited to only 140 characters."

Another way to look at this? Henry Ford's quote:

"If I'd asked my customers what they wanted, they'd have said 'a faster horse.'"

See, things like Twitter are like avalanches. Big companies love to create an avalanche. After all, that's how you get on the front page of Wall Street Journal and find new ways to grow, etc.

The thing is to create an avalanche you've gotta make it snow one snowflake at a time. Big companies don't get that part of the equation. Why? Creating snowflakes is SMALL and isn't interesting to multi-billion-dollar companies.

It's why I travel the world. I'm looking for who is making snowflakes. I'll leave the avalanche business for the big boys.

Got a snowflake? Let me know.

Oh, and Eric, have fun looking for the big problems. I bet that some kid in a garage in Israel or Colorado will get there first.


scobleizer says...

So, I've been studying Facebook, FriendFeed, Twitter, and Google's Wave and other things for some time.

Last week I also visited Yelp, which is growing at a million new users PER MONTH.

Twitter is growing at about 4 times that rate. Facebook is growing about 2x that rate.

So, these are the big players. It's clear that they are getting massive adoption. I don't see that slowing down or stopping for any of these players.

But where's the money? To figure that out you've got to see where they are coming from. What is their usage model?

Facebook's? They built the rolodex of the web. They have the white pages. Sorry, Yahoo, you are toast there. TechCrunch reports that Yahoo wants to be the place people go for social search. That's done. Facebook is it. Strength? They are the white pages. Weakness? Not much interaction with brands and businesses.

Google's? That's where you go to search for most things. Especially businesses. Looking for Sushi in Palo Alto? You go to Google. I also go there to find people's emails, blogs, and Twitter accounts, but they don't have that locked up. Facebook, for most people, does a better job of finding blogs, emails, and phone numbers. Strength? Mobile integration thanks to iPhone. Breadth of usage, thanks to all the dozens of things Google does, from Picasa to Google Maps. Business listing and location is best of breed, but... Weakness? Google doesn't get social software. It just doesn't know what to do to make a Twitter. They bought Dodgeball and Jaiku and then squandered those purchases. The founders aren't really very social people and the culture there is very engineering focused, but not very human focused. Will they overcome that? My bet is no, but they will keep trying.

Twitter's? They understand how to get people to participate in public, which makes search possible. Plus simplicity and openness of their APIs make brands and celebrities hot and bothered (they tell me that Facebook and Google are too complicated to use in comparison). Strength? Publicness and engagement of both developers and celebrities and brands. Weakness? They don't have a good list of businesses like Google does and they don't have a lot of hooks that keep users engaged like Facebook does. They don't iterate fast enough to take advantage of new learning and they are -- so far -- squandering their lead in real time search (it has actually gotten worse over the past year instead of better). New APIs like retweeting and location have been announced, but not really baked into the service yet.

Yelp's? In cities where Yelp is getting adoption, they've found the best business integration of all of these and businesses are now paying to "offer" their users things to get new customers into the door. This is where the real money is and over the next year you'll see Facebook and Google figure this out. Strength? Best of breed business recommendations and best mobile experience for finding local businesses. Weakness? They don't have the general engagement that Facebook and Twitter have. Also, Yelp is only strong in a few cities and is in the midst of a landgrab that could be stunted if Facebook or Google ship a local business service soon.

So, where's the money?

Twitter seems to have moved away from the idea of competing directly with Facebook and Google over a business listing service. That's a shame, because Twitter has the potential to be a powerful business interaction service. We were just in a sushi restaurant in Boulder, CO, which is already using Twitter in an interesting way (we'll have a video about that up in the next week or so) but will you search for sushi in Boulder like this on Twitter? No. You might praise or complain about the restaurant on Twitter, though, and Twitter is moving to charging businesses for more features like group management tools (at Rackspace we use TweetRiver, other businesses use CoTweet, but I can imagine a world where Twitter does these features themselves, or acquires one of these companies and charges for extra features like these) or tools that give more insights into what's happening in the marketplace. Or, look at services like TweetMeme that are tracking retweeting behavior. That will provide an early warning system into Twitter for many businesses in the future.

I think Twitter is going to miss the real money, though. The real money is going to come out of those business listings. Yelp has it figured out. Facebook is stuck inside its walled garden and is doing everything possible to figure out how to become more public, so it can turn on search features. Even today Facebook hired "Mr. Open" David Recordon. If I were Mark Zuckerberg I would rebrand the public part of Facebook as "Facebook Public" and make it very cool to publish there. For the past few days I've been using the not-released-yet Facebook 3.0 iPhone app. You can see this "publicness" all over the place. Zuckerberg understands why Twitter got businesses hot and bothered and is doing everything possible to get his 300 million users there before Twitter figures out it needs to do a business listing and search service.

How will Facebook collect the cash? Well, go to Google and let's do that sushi search for Boulder, Colorado again. Did you see how that list works? Facebook needs that list. Twitter isn't even close. But what's missing? PEOPLE! Imagine if this list, when it's brought to you by Facebook, shows that #1 has been liked by 14 of your friends? Businesses get that for free. But what don't they get for free?

Yelp's "offers." Businesses PAY to "offer" things to customers to try to move up the list.

So, if you're the #3 business on the list, you might say "bring your iPhone in and you'll get free beer." Doing that will cost you money, both in the free beer and the advertising you'll pay Facebook or Google or Yelp to try to move up the list.

Google has the list. It doesn't have the humans or the offers. Yelp has the offers but doesn't have hundreds of millions of people. Facebook has hundreds of millions of people and the "like" system, but not the offers.

So, who will get there first? Now you understand the battlefield. Who will win the war?

My bet is on Facebook. Why? Well, they just hired the guy who built Gmail and the monetization system at Google.


Tony says...

Pardon the mush, but damn it I have to write this down somewhere:
 
SCENE: Ext. Sunny August Friday.
 
Pan down from blue sky.
 
What a lovely day. Zipping down the 101 listening to U2; sipping some piping hot coffee; thinking about HER.
 
Work is work is work.
 
What a beautiful afternoon. Lunch was In-N-Out burgers with far-flung relatives on a rare visit. Then a small mountain of Coldstone ice cream, topped with a blanket of M&Ms. The sun looked down upon us with favor.
 
And yet.
 
And yet, I remain abuzz, aflame, aglow. SHE has captured my attentions and my thoughts, and I fear she -- not knowing her reach -- may never let go.
 
Let's see what I like about her...
 
No felonies. Check.
No psycho ex-boyfriends. Check. I think.
 
A smile that makes me smile.
A heart as big as the ocean. I think. No, I'm certain of it.
 
Longish hair. Nothing fancy. That's hot.
Short fingernails. Athletic gal. That's cool.
 
She is about the most aggressive girl ever.
She is about the most passive-looking girl ever.
 
Her contradictions (in my mind) mystify me, and riddles have always intrigued me.
She forces me to reconsider my prejudice against certain types of girls.
 
Well, I shall have to find a way to see her more often. I pray that this isn't just a passing infatuation.
 
I can't let her get away...
 
--------------------------
Let's see if another baseball game (Giants vs. Reds) tonight clears my head. This is getting fierce.


garry says...

Henri Cartier Bresson took photos with a camera like this:

His work looks like:

Google Maps takes photos with a camera like this:

Its work looks like:

Amazing photography chosen showcased by artfagcity.com, curated by Jon Rafman. Go check it out

You should follow me on twitter here.

Filed under: new media, photography