Boring winter weather
Still no snow, and probably one of the warmest temperatures in Nowember in a long time, if not the warmest ever? The temperatures are between +6c to +10c.
Still no snow, and probably one of the warmest temperatures in Nowember in a long time, if not the warmest ever? The temperatures are between +6c to +10c.
I found this interesting article on Wired.com today. It has some "new" information of the climate change. It's worth reading.
Fueled by previously unappreciated links between climate and ecology, the North Sea has undergone a radical ecological shift in the last half-century, say scientists.
The very shape of the food web has changed, from plankton on up to the cod and flatfish that once dominated the icy waters, supporting rich commercial fisheries. They’ve been largely replaced by jellyfish and crabs.
The full scope of the change has gone relatively unnoticed, and could foreshadow changes in waters around the world.
“Climate-driven changes in the biology of the sea are largely hidden from view,” said Richard Kirby, a marine biologist at the University of Plymouth. “If similar changes occurred in a temperate forest, we would be shocked.”
In a study published in the upcoming December Proceedings of the Royal Society B, Kirby and Gregory Bertrand, an oceanologist at the Lille University of Science and Technology, analyze decades of climate and ecosystem data gathered in the North Sea, a pocket of ocean bordered by the United Kingdom and Scandinavia.
Though relatively small, the North Sea has historically been a fabulously fertile fishing ground. Even now, it provides about five percent of the global fish harvest — but that’s barely a third of what it yielded just a century ago.
Declining stocks have been blamed almost entirely on overfishing. However, though fishing pressures have indeed been intense, some scientists have suspected that water temperatures are also a factor.
Over the last quarter-century, the North Sea’s upper layers have warmed by about 1 degree Fahrenheit. That seems like little, but in the North Sea, summer and winter water temperatures differ by just a few degrees. Even a single degree of change is relatively profound, and enough to disrupt aquatic organisms accustomed to functioning in a very narrow thermal range.
Whether the warming is man-made or not, it’s a sign of times to come. Global ocean temperatures are expected to experience a comparable or greater rise during the next century. And the consequences, as anticipated by the North Sea, have been relatively unacknowledged. Most discussions of climate change impacts focus on the terrestrial. When ocean life is mentioned, it’s in the context of of coral reef bleaching or acidifying waters.
Both those threats are grave, but the possibility of oceans completely changing their character, independent of acidification or reef effects, may be just as troubling.
“The effect of climate on the marine food web, the way small changes can be amplified through the web, that’s the moral of the story here,” said Kirby. “And food webs everywhere will be affected in a similar way.”
At the heart of Kirby and Bertrand’s findings is data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey, which has been run in the North Atlantic since 1931, when explorer Alister Hardy invented the recorder — a specialized box that’s dragged behind commercial ships, allowing researchers to take sea-wide samples of plankton and juvenile members of other species.
Combined with temperature records, the CPRS provides the most comprehensive climate-ecosystem dataset of any ocean, if not the entire world. And as temperatures have changed, so has every part of the food web, starting with its foundation.
“If you were to divide zooplankton into those that prefer warmer southern waters, and those that prefer colder northern waters, and look at the boundaries between those groups, it’s moved north by over 700 miles in the last 40 years,” said Kirby. “That’s one of the largest range shifts, if not the largest, that’s been recorded.”
The distribution of hundreds of species have changed, in every niche from plankton up to the North Sea’s top predators. Cod and flatfish numbers have plummeted, and tuna have vanished. The ecological roles they once played are now occupied by jellyfish and bottom-dwelling crabs.
“The North Sea has fundamentally changed. It’s a totally different ecosystem from what it was,” said Kirby.
When Kirby and Bertrand crunched the numbers describing these patterns with equations designed to separate cause from coincidence, they found that temperature drove the changes. They also found evidence for what they call “trophic amplification.”
“Because temperature acts on different components of the food web, the gross effect is amplified,” said Kirby. “It affects the phytoplankton that copepods feed on; it affects the copepods; it affects the predators who eat the copepods; and all those effects, magnified, are much greater than any one alone.” This compounding dynamic is responsible for the extreme rapidity of the shift, he added.
“The findings seem plausible to me,” said Marten Scheffer, a Wageningen University ecologist who specializes in ecosystem-wide transitions. Scheffer, who was not involved in the study, also said that marine shifts are notoriously difficult to study. “Compared to work on lakes, or terrestrial grazing systems, there is little scope for experimental testing,” he said.
According to Kirby, models by fisheries managers need to incorporate these dynamics and and policymakers contemplating global warming need to consider the magnitude of the change.
A similar dynamic may be at work in the Sea of Japan, which in recent years has become dominated by giant jellyfish.
“Marine ecosystems have always changed, but people don’t realize how responsive they are, and how rapidly they may change,” he said. “Humans shouldn’t forget that we don’t live in isolation from the food web.”
// By Brandon Keim
// Original article: http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2009/10/north-sea-change/
I've never really blogged about global warming because it's a topic I'm not really sure on. I'm not sure whether the people who say it's a hoax are right, or if the people who say the ocean will rise 20 feet by 2020 are right. However, I am sure that I don't want global warming happening. I understand that it's a bad thing. And I'm a believer in the whole "better safe than sorry" cliche; in most cases.
If global warming is a hoax, but it caused us to clean up our planet; we've gained a cleaner atmosphere? If global warming is real and we make an effort to clean up our planet; we've saved ourselves and future generations from global catastrophe.
I think I'm missing the bad side of all this. Sure, big industry has to spend more money on reducing emissions. But even if global warming is a hoax, how is it a bad thing to believe in?
Whether you believe in global warming or not, I invite you to help keep our planet clean. We've been doing a great job in the past couple of years with all the "green" stuff you see, but we can do much better. It only takes a little bit of effort on everyone's part.
The whole idea of calling global warming a hoax seems like a dumb, lazy, selfish idea to me. Dumb because it gives people an excuse to make a mess. Lazy because it's an excuse to not bother cleaning up. Selfish because anybody who says it obviously doesn't care about future generations.
Sorry for being a bit harsh just then, but come on people!
Thank you for keeping our world beautiful.
WASHINGTON Published on HamptonRoads.com | PilotOnline.com (http://hamptonroads.com)
U.S. Rep. Dana Rohrabacher was in a froth, and his audience loved it.
The California Republican was talking about global warming and could barely contain his disgust.
"Al Gore has been wrong all along!" Rohrabacher yelled into the microphone. "This is outrageous! All of this is wrong! The people who have stifled this debate have an agenda that is just frightening!"
Welcome to the third annual International Conference on Climate Change, a daylong session of speeches and scientific presentations that took place Tuesday just blocks from the U.S. Capitol. Almost no media covered the event.
Organized by The Heartland Institute and other conservative think tanks and groups, the conference drew about 250 guests, most of them researchers and policy analysts, some from as far away as Japan and Australia.
There was plenty of wry laughter during the day, especially when former Vice President Gore and his award-winning movie, "An Inconvenient Truth," were brought up, which was often.
The conference hall also was filled with a tangible air of frustrated defeat, like the brainy kid in math class who thinks he knows all the answers, raises his hand time and again, but is never called upon.
"We are seldom heard in the policy debate," said Joseph L. Bast, president of The Heartland Institute. "If you open your newspaper, turn on your TV set, you're likely to see global warming alarmism, and nothing else."
Bast labeled as "popular delusion" the current conventional wisdom on the issue - that man-made emissions, notably carbon dioxide, from the burning of fossil fuels is dangerously heating up the planet, causing sea levels to rise and is increasing the ferocity of storms and drought.
As such, the conference represents a lingering - and still powerful - sentiment that global warming is not such a big deal after all.
Instead, attendees argued, the slow and slight increase in air, water and atmospheric temperatures during much of the 20th century is part of a natural cycle of the Earth's unpredictable, roller-coaster weather patterns.
Carbon dioxide, they debated, is not a pollutant that should be regulated, as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the Supreme Court now hold; it is an attribute that helps plant and sea life.
Bast acknowledged that the conference was hurriedly organized, and moved from New York City to Washington, to counteract proposals from President Barack Obama for a "cap-and-trade" program aimed at fighting global warming by drastically limiting carbon emissions.
Bast and others described the proposed programs as a complete waste of money, with potentially crippling consequences for the economy, and without any attainable goals.
"How do you control the weather?" asked Bob Carter, an Australian scholar from James Cook University. "For us to assume we can somehow control nature and regulate weather patterns, when we cannot even predict them correctly, is patently absurd."
Others saw darker motives in the climate debate.
These skeptics, including Rohrabacher, contended that global warming is a liberal-inspired hoax, intended to wrest control of world energy policy and wealth from Western countries so the United Nations can have its way.
To them, liberty, capitalism and the U.S. economy are at stake.
"I have to wonder what has happened to the sovereignty of the United States," said U.S. Sen. James Inhofe, R-Okla., the keynote speaker at the conference and the ranking member of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, which debates climate policy.
Skeptics, or "realists," as they call themselves, focus much of their scorn on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which shared a Nobel Peace Prize with Gore in 2007.
The IPCC consists of hundreds of scientists from across the globe who, for two decades, have tracked climate research and temperature trends, and attempted to interpret what they mean for policymakers.
Its most famous pronouncement, in 2007, was that a marked increase in greenhouse gases from mostly man-made sources is "very likely" causing climate change.
"Very likely," the IPCC wrote, means a 90 percent certainty that human activity, not natural variability, is the driving force.
The IPCC also noted that many geographical areas seem especially susceptible to climate change, including low-lying coastal areas, such as southeastern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina.
But scientist after scientist at the conference pointed out flaws and shortcomings in the calculations of the IPCC, especially its reliance on computer models to make forecasts.
One researcher, Roy Spencer, a professor at the University of Alabama-Huntsville, noted that the IPCC did not adequately calculate how clouds play a major role in ground temperatures.
When there are few clouds in the sky, temperatures typically are warmer, Spencer said, and when it is cloudy outside, conditions typically are cooler.
Is it possible then, Spencer asked, that decreasing clouds in recent decades caused the warmings recorded on Earth?
Spencer said he asked the IPCC about this and was surprised to learn that the organization had not researched this point and had assumed that cloud cover does not change over time but is fairly consistent.
The two revelations sparked more wry laughter from the audience.
"If a 1 percent change in cloudiness could trigger global warming, or global cooling, wouldn't you think that'd be a pretty important thing to nail down?" Spencer asked. "They have never gone there."
Skepticism over climate science is hardly new. Indeed, skepticism has always been a part of scientific discourse and has been around global warming since the 1970s, when the theory first gained credence.
William "Skip" Stiles, a Norfolk environmentalist, was working as a congressional aide back then, and he remembers the committee hearings, the charges and countercharges of bias and flawed science.
"I will agree that these models are only as good as the data that goes into them," Stiles said. "But when you think of all the shots these folks have had at this, and all the years of research by the IPCC - we're talking 25 years! - you have to think we've reached some fairly solid conclusions that global warming is real and we, as humans, are playing a major role in it."
Carl Hershner, a researcher and professor at the Virginia Institute of Marine Science who has tracked sea level rise in Virginia for years, expressed similar thoughts.
"One thing about science is that you never get rid of all the naysayers," Hershner said. He described the IPCC as "an extremely conservative group" that "constantly looks at achieving consensus, and updates its findings regularly."
In his keynote address Tuesday, Sen. Inhofe predicted that cap-and-trade will pass the House of Representatives - "Nancy Pelosi has the votes," he said - but will stall in the Senate, where previous climate-change programs have similarly died.
Last year, without any action coming from Washington, Gov. Timothy M. Kaine appointed a Climate Change Commission to suggest ways Virginia can reduce carbon emissions and lessen its role in accelerating warming.
The theory that global warming is a natural phenomenon, and not man-made, was not part of commission deliberations.
"The fact that global climate change is happening and is largely human-caused is now widely accepted," reads the commission's final report, published in December.
At the bottom of the page, however, is a footnote: "While we have concluded that the overwhelming evidence supports these points, we have heard testimony providing contrary information during public comment periods at our meetings."
State Sen. Frank Wagner, a Republican from Virginia Beach, was a member of the climate commission. He also has attended one of the skeptics' conferences in New York City.
"I've tried to keep an open mind," Wagner said. "There are so many theories out there, and so much detail, you're kind of overwhelmed.
"I mean, even the scientists themselves are debating with each other at these meetings. You're left wondering what the truth really is."
Scott Harper, (757) 446-2340, scott.harper@pilotonline.com
Statement by Atmospheric Scientists on Greenhouse Warming

Each IPCC Assessment and Special Report has a Summary for Policymakers (SPM) which is widely distributed. The SPM text is subject to line by line discussions and approval at a Plenary Session. The SPM has to be consistent with the factual material contained in the full report. Lead Authors of the report participate in the Session to provide explanations and clarifications and assist to ensure that consistency between the Summary for Policymakers and the full report is achieved.
One particular industry that I've started analyzing more over the past few months concerns renewable energy solutions. I've learned about some cool techniques during past little bit....how energy can be recreated from waste, how energy from be produced in Africa and delivered to a customer in Sweden, .etc. Some really cool stuff!
When it comes to green initiatives, probably Al Gore is the most well-known figure. His movie on global warming definitely sparked some conversation within my group of friends. As someone trying to push something at such a large scale, he's also receiving criticism. People are accusing him of trying to profit from investment put into the Green Economy. Some critics say that the idea of Global Warming is false and is just a political stunt to get people to pour money into an industry. Check out the movie "The Global Warming Swindle" if you want to hear people who deny that global warming exists.I wanted to share this video about how Gore defends himself. His satire use of rebuttals and direct answers are most admirable. Never does he give the impression that he's in the Hot Seat, and that is impressive to me. Nice job Al!