Trying to answer a number of loosely related questions lately, an important idea has become increasingly clear: we are rapidly entering the age of the BOPNet.
The past decade of ICT has been defined by a combination of Moore's law and the need to drive more and more data across expensively built networks, fueling behavior that wants faster processors, faster networks and richer communications and media experiences, culminating in iconic objects like iPhone, big screen laptops and an armada of bandwidth hungry applications and services.
Meanwhile, while we obsessed over bigger, faster, more in the developed world, networks were lit in the global south,
mobile subscriptions in emerging markets spiked, and better services have crept (slowly, but surely) into the previously dark corners of these markets. Most importantly, thousands of ambitious developers and entrepreneurs have been developing appropriate services, mainly in small islands, tuned to the unique needs, as well as the resource restrictions, of local environments.
Now, as
Niti pointed out recently, we are starting to see not only platforms that span multiple BOP environments grow and solidify, and metaplatforms emerge. We are experiencing the coalescing of the BOPNet. It's emergence can be defined by what you can and can't do with it. You can't reasonably apply most usage and business models from the developed markets—metrics are different, usage patterns are different, and Mbps moved and minutes used don't totally equate to value delivered. Massive infrastructure investments can't just be passed down—cents on the dollar matter.
You can manage resources more carefully at the technology level. You can deliver high value utility while not demanding more bytes and bandwidth. You can mine a rich seam of opportunities, because there is now scale.
Thinking about this BOPNet, several implications come to mind:
1. The BOPNet is a separate sphere, but will be integrated with its developed world cousin. As commerce and communication flows between these two spheres increase, opportunities will exist in translating at the border.
2. Its unique characteristics will start to shape macro-level infrastructure. In much the same way developd world ICT models shape and bend physical infrastructure, from transportation to energy to commerce, the unique characteristics of the BOPNet will shape these same markets' design and function in the next few decades.
3. Innovation from the BOPNet will continue to flow uphill. The developed world is fast approaching a point where it cannot devote infinite resources to ICT. We are already learning to take innovations created to better serve the BOPNet and use them to do more with less in the developed world. This will accelerate.
4.
Technologically, over time the pyramid may begin to invert. The simple math will drive momentum in innovation to the point where the BOPNet reaches a kind of utility-parity with the top of the pyramid, particularly if the top of the pyramid continues shifting its media consumption to these networks at the cost of developing more actual utility and value. China is doing this with energy, innovating based on the need to sustain 1.4 billion inhabitants (an innovation inversion we will hereafter call "
Friedman's Nightmare"). India may do this with communication networks in the same way, as may (hopefully) parts of Africa eventually.
This will also mean not measuring innovation simply on the basis of dollars earnd, shareholder value created, or ads served, but more along the metrics of life improvement. Right now, I'd take
FrontlineSMS, and
Ushahidi over Foursquare and Spotify in that category.
More to come for sure. Stay tuned.
