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Politics with Marc Ambinder

How Al Jazeera Outlasted Donald Rumsfeld

The day after his first round of testimony to Congress, Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan, was on a press tour. First stop was National Public Radio, with its internationally inflected American elite audience. Second stop was the obligatory sitdown with the dean of the world press corps, Christianne Amanpour at CNN. Interview number three took place in an ordinary-looking Nixon-era office building in downtown, D.C.

At about 3:00 pm, McChrystal and a small retinue of aides arrived at the American broadcast center of Al Jazeera English, the three-year old cousin of the Qatar-based Arabic language news channel. (Robert Kaplan wrote about AJE here.)

This was an important day for "English," as its employees call it, perhaps the most self-validating since the beginning of the Obama administration. The Defense Department asked Jazeera for its time, not the other way around. A reporter was invited to watch behind the scenes. Jazeera's publicists took the Acela down from New York. A staff photographer was on hand.

In his corner office, Riz Khan, host of the program on which McChrystal was to appear, scrolled through a list of questions, many submitted by readers. His producer, Carolyn Robinson, pointed to one from a viewer in Pashtun. She had had it made into a graphic.

Khan is a pioneer of international broadcast journalism. He was one of the founding anchors of BBC World Service's television component in 1991. He joined Al Jazeera English upon its launch in 2006 and hosts a daily question and answer show.

Khan is used to answering questions about his employer. He has a set of disarming anecdotes at the ready, and his enthusiasm, for such a grizzled veteran of broadcasting, outweighs any annoyance he must feel at having to reflexively defend Al Jazeera in every external interview he gives.

"Bill Caldwell came here a while ago," he says, referring to the number two general in Afghanistan. "He told me that had he forced all new recruits to watch Al Jazeera because that's the way they can watch international perspective. So we've broadened our coverage. The fact that a lot of us are from the BBC, CNN, ITN -- people get to know us, and that helped. No one ever becomes a radical; we're not a radical channel."

The channel's image was defined by the Arabic version's defiant and critical coverage of the U.S. invasion of Iraq and for the means by which it used to obtain Osama Bin Laden's communiques before anyone else. The Defense Department hated it. Donald Rumsfeld, in particular, was witheringly critical. Jazeera Arabic regularly lied, he told reporters. The Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq kept a list of the channel's alleged falsehoods. In an Oval Office meeting with Tony Blair, President Bush once reportedly joked that he wished he could bomb the Jazeera's Doha headquarters. (The military had twice hit Jazeera facilities and personnel -- by accident -- they insisted -- earlier in the war.)

"It used to be Al Jazeera, the voice of Osama," Khan says of its reputation. "The fact is, we've gone way past that now. People who watch us know what we do."

Khan carries around a clipping in his wallet from the Guardian newspaper in Britain. It is a correction -- rare for a British publication -- acknowledging that, no, despite what it had reported, Al Jazeera had not shown its viewers a particular beheading. (Al Jazeera has never shown any beheading.)

Still, Jazeera's producers hadn't noticed too much of an attitude change since the inauguration. The decided unfriendliness of the early Bush era had morphed into sort of a benign neglect by the time Bush left office, although the State Department had grown a bit chummier, albeit still stingy with the interviews.

The English-language news channel employs 150 people in its Washington, D.C., offices alone. It is known for its aggressive coverage of breaking news worldwide. Khan was in Mumbai when terrorists attacked there; Al Jazeera had the first and best footage. It was the only television network with correspondents in Gaza after Israel attacked militants there in late 2008.

Over the past few years, as the BBC began to downsize its bureaus in the developing world, Jazeera's Arabic and English journalists and producers flew in to fill the gap. Jazeera is now a bona fide international news force, competing with CNN International and BBC World. (Rupert Murdoch's Sky News service -- that's a bit of a Euro-centric concern, Jazeera's producers say.)

Khan talked about the channel's forays into U.S. politics. It credentialed reporters at both political conventions in 2008. It sent a reporter and former U.S. Marine, Josh Rushing, to Golden, Colorado when Democrats gathered in Denver. The Hell's Angels turned out to protest Al Jazeera. "But it's a funny thing, you know. The beauty of America -- why those of us who live here love it so much and why we like being here is that the people of the town came out and said, 'We believe in the freedom of expression,' and some of the town folks created one of their own protests to counter the Hell's Angels."

Khan is interrupted by an assistant. "We have to go down and meet the General at 3," he says.  "I know, I know," Khan says. "You'll have to go from there straight to the studio to do the Doha thing. So I'll come back at five of."

"Great. Cheers." The assistant exits.

"So even though..." Khan begins.

His longtime producer, James Wright, bounds through the door and apologizes.

"The general is going to be here at 3," he says. "So we should be ready to say hello to him."

Khan smiles wanly. Everyone wants to make sure the choreography is perfect.

He jokes about how Jazeera's employees used to wonder whether they'd have trouble applying for a mortgage or getting through TSA checkpoints at the airport. Nothing of that sort happened, of course. He is (mostly) joking.

"The proof is in the pudding. You get to see it and based on facts and figures rather than 
based on speculation, which is where the negative image came from."

A few minutes later, Kahn is on set, chatting with McChrystal as the technicians make their final preparations for the broadcast.

McChrystal informs Khan that he's a huge fan of Monty Python.

Wright escorts McChyrstal's press aide and chief information officer into the control room. The two McChyrstal men whisper and confer.

"Just one thing," one of them tells Wright. "How are you going to font him?"

He's referring to the superimposed title that will appear under the general's chest in the head-on shot.

On screen, it says "Gen. Stanley McChrystal."

"Sometimes people call him the commander of U.S. forces, but he's the commander of both the U.S. and NATO forces. He [the general] purposely chooses not to make a distinction."

Wright promises that Khan will make sure to get this point right, which of course he does.

Khan's questions are tough and probing. He refers to an Al Jazeera English investigation of the readiness of Afghan troops and plays a clip from an Afghan soldier who admits as much.

After a commercial break, he opens the phone lines to "Sameer from South America," who asks a largely inaudible question about Muslims and America and Afghanistan.

Khan: "Sumeer, let me put it in these terms to the general. What Sumeer is saying is a sentiment reflected over a lot of people, and that is that, what right does America have to be there?"

McChrystal: "I think the most important thing is the acceptance and the desire of the Afghan people for the coalition to help them. And it's a coalition of 43 nations. It's not just the United States. I think if the Afghan people, through their government and popularly, did not support this effort then I think that the viewer would be right. But I think that they do."

Later, Khan reads the e-mail from the Pashtun viewer. Why won't the Americans convince a neutral Muslim force to keep the peace? Another question: why does it seem like Turkey is the only country whose troops are working to rebuild Afghanistan, rather than fight in it?

McChrystal praises Turkey -- and answers very carefully. It's clear that he doesn't get questions like these very often.

It was a tough interview, to be sure, but there are smiles and handshakes when it is over.

And there is evidence that it was effective -- both for Jazeera's English's reputation and for the strategic communication needs of the U.S.

Within three hours of McChystal's interview, Khan's producer got a call from Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's office. Could Khan come over and interview her?

Earlier in his office, Khan had mentioned Donald Rumsfeld: "I bump him into him from time to time to time. His office is around the corner. And I keep thinking, we're still here, and he's not."

Filed under: international

hannahswiv says...

Filed under: international

ZacharyTG says...

Here's an interesting one. Vodafone, which is one of the few carriers in the world right now with access to HTC's HD2, is reportedly not going to stock the handset any longer once its current supply evaporates. The reason? Why, that's a fantastic question! According to a company spokesperson, there has been a "massive amount of interest" in the big-screen mobile, with initial stock "selling out quickly and subsequent deliveries used to fulfill backorders." Call us crazy, but it seems a wee bit foolish to can a product that's selling well -- unless, of course, Voda has a certain amount of iPhones that it'll be required to sell just a few months from now (or else buy 'em itself). Whatever the case, we're told that the operator "will not [be] re-stocking the HTC HD2 for general consumer sales once current stock runs out," so if you're jonesing for one, ten minutes ago would've been a great time to buy.

Filed under: international

NightWatch

For the Night of 7 December 2009

North Korea:  Update.  During the weekend, foreign diplomats, accredited in Pyongyang, claimed that large spontaneous rallies protesting the currency devaluation and replacement have been breaking out in the North Korean capital and other major cities.  The Army has been put on a heightened state of alert in case of mass acts of disobedience.

North Korea-South Korea:  Delegations from North and South Korea will begin a joint inspection of industrial complexes in China and Vietnam on 12 December, according to the South Korean Ministry of Unification.  The South will send 10 officials led by Kim Young-tak, the senior representative for inter-Korean dialogue at the ministry.

"We are making preparations, assuming that the delegates will depart on the 12th.  Flight schedules and other personnel have yet to be confirmed,'' ministry spokesman Chun Hae-sung told reporters. He did not elaborate, saying that the two Koreas agreed not to make the details public.

South Korea proposed the joint survey in June as part of efforts to benchmark industrial parks abroad and learn lessons to develop the joint Kaesong Industrial Complex in the North. The survey results are expected to form the basis of assessing North Korea's demands for a drastic increase in salaries for North Korean workers at the complex and rent for the site.

The two Koreas conducted similar inspections in 2005 and 2007.

North Korea-US: Ambassador Bosworth, special representative in charge of policy for North Korea, is due in Pyongyang on 8 December to open direct talks with the North. North Korea announced that it was willing to return to multilateral talks depending on the progress in direct talks with the US.

A pro-North Korean media outlet, Choson Sinbo on 5 December published a commentary on the North’s objectives in direct talks, which is to replace the Armistice with a peace agreement.

In the article, the writer recalled that North and South Korea once proposed the idea of holding "trilateral or four-party summit talks" to pursue the issue of declaring an end to the war in the agreement of leaders two years ago…. “In order to guarantee peace on the Korean peninsula, the process of the DPRK and the United States, which are the two parties at war and direct parties in the nuclear issue, putting an end to their hostile relations should first be carried out in the end.  If belligerent nations which are aiming their gun muzzles at each other attempt to hold direct negotiations and fundamentally resolve the pending issues, "peace" will be a subject that cannot be ignored.”

“Special Representative Bosworth's visit to Pyongyang is not an idea of any individual foreign official.  Last August, the DPRK opened the phase of dialogue with the United States based on General Secretary Kim Jong Il's decisive measure.  President Obama, who is also the supreme commander of US Forces, came to dispatch a special envoy to the DPRK.  A dialogue venue, where mutual willingness on policy can be exchanged while a high degree of political judgment is in action, came to be prepared.  This is the very reason why DPRK-US talks, which will be held in Pyongyang, have attracted the attention of the world.”

Not much new, but the article is a reminder that the North considers its initiatives to be responsible for the US interest in sending Bosworth, which is typical. But the movement is by a US delegate is traveling to Pyongyang, which the North considers a diplomatic victory because of the brilliance of Kim Chong-il.  

It would have been better for the US to hold such talks in Kuala Lumpur. At least Bosworth would not appear in Asian eyes as a supplicant.

The agenda is not nuclear talks, but the end of the armistice.  The lack of progress towards a peace agreement is the meaning of the North’s recurring accusation that the US has a hostile attitude, i.e., it won’t negotiate a permanent peace

North Korea-Iran:  Kyodo World Service reported on 6 December that Iran has decided to postpone the test launch of a new intermediate-range ballistic missile apparently due to problems with the delivery of components ordered from North Korea, a Western diplomatic source said Sunday.

According to Kyodo’s account, Tehran told Pyongyang that electronic parts for improving the missile's accuracy have yet to arrive from North Korea.  North Korea claims it shipped the components in 10 Iran-bound containers that were seized in the United Arab Emirates in July.

''The shipment of the electronic components was supposed to be part of the new agreement signed in late 2008 between Iran and North Korea for the continued supply of the new missile's technology,'' the diplomatic source said.  Iran supposedly suspects the components were not actually in the containers, according to the source.

North Korea is believed to have developed the new intermediate-range missile by modifying a Soviet-made submarine-launched ballistic missile, the SSN6, one of the most reliable nuclear-capable missiles ever built. It is known as the BM-25 or Musudan among Western intelligence circles and military experts. Several sources indicate Iran bought this system from North Korea in 2005 and has a complete firing unit of 18 missiles, according to the Israeli Intelligence Chief in 2006.  It probably lacks the latest electronics or production technology.

''The test, when it succeeds, will enable Iran to improve its operational SSM (surface-to-surface missile) capability, to advance to mass production of the new missile,'' the source added, noting that the missile's target range is between 2,500 and 3,500 kilometers depending on the warhead payload, thus posing a threat to most of Europe.

This is the most dangerous operational missile that Iran and North Korea have. No source in the public domain has reported that Iran has acquired production technology for the missile, but the North Koreans are known to sell turnkey production capabilities, which they did to Syria and Pakistan for other ballistic missiles.

The delay might be a measure of success for the counter-proliferation lobby. The usual explanation is the Iran’s are always trying to stiff the North Koreans by not paying on time or not paying the amount due. Still the Iranian arms relationship is one of the most enduring that North Korea has, after Syria and Pakistan.

Philippines:  Update. Rebel forces loyal to a powerful Muslim clan whose stronghold is under martial law in the southern Philippines have engaged troops in clashes, Agence France-Presse reported 7 December. Interior Secretary Ronaldo Puno said the rebel groups and the Philippine National Police were engaged in firefights.

During the weekend, security officials found large weapons caches in the stronghold of the clan responsible for the massacre of the family and supporters of an opposition politician. One report said the clan has a militia of 3,000 armed men.  Nevertheless, the Muslims will be the losers. They are too few to reverse the domination by the Philippine Christians. These incidents serve the Christians more than the political interests of the Muslims, even in the Muslim autonomous region, because Muslims are fighting other Muslims. The Philippine Army intervenes to keep the death toll from becoming too embarrassing.

India-Israel:  For the record. Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Gabi Ashkenazi will begin a three-day visit to India on 8 December, Press Trust of India reported. General Ashkenazi will meet with Indian Chief of Army Staff General Deepak Kapoor, National Security Adviser M.K. Narayanan and the leaders of the Navy and the Air Force.  A delegation of Israeli defense officials also is accompanying General Ashkenazi.

This visit is almost not newsworthy which why it is significant. The two usually discuss advanced weapons systems and subsystems, intelligence, special forces operations and air defense.  They also could talk about Israeli access to India, say, after an attack on Iran, but that is speculation based purely on geography.

 Pakistan:  During this Watch, the News International reported the death toll from today’s two bombings in Lahore, in eastern Pakistan close to the Indian border, rose to 37 with 100 injured.

In western Pakistan, authorities in the North West Frontier Province government said ten people died when a suicide bomber detonated outside a Peshawar courthouse, Agence France-Presse reported 7 December. Bilor said the bomber arrived in a rickshaw and tried to enter the building, but was blocked by security.  At least 49 people were wounded in the blast including three policemen and two lawyers.

On Friday, a suicide bomber detonated at the Parade Land Askari Mosque in Rawalpindi in northern Pakistan, killing 44 and injuring 17. This mosque is located close to Army General Headquarters. A serving major general of the Pakistan Army, a brigadier, two lieutenant colonels, a major and a number of soldiers were among those killed in the multi-pronged attack.

According to metransparent.com which quoted the Ministry of Interior, at least 366 Pakistanis have been killed and 901 injured through November 2009 in seven bombing attacks targeting m

Comment: In Peshawar, bombings have became nearly a daily occurrence in the past two weeks. They are less frequent in Lahore. In both cities, local internal intelligence and security are poor or penetrated by Islamist sympathizers.  In Rawalpindi, attacks also are infrequent, but occur randomly with impunity and are well targeted, apparently with the planning, guidance and leadership of former Pakistan Army officers.

The genuinely ironic twist to today’s events is a report in the 7 December edition of Dawn News that Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (Pakistani Taliban) leaders have said they will cease attacks on Pakistani soil if the government agrees to sit with them on the negotiation table.  The leader of a legal Islamic political party told Dawn News that Interior Minister Rehman Malik contacted him to seek his party’s opinion on the Pakistani Taliban's latest strategy.  Rehman Malik disclosed that Taliban had contacted the government for a dialogue and if their offer was accepted the Taliban would abandon suicide attacks and other subversive activities in the country.

Afghanistan-US-NATO:  The United States wants to get all the new troops allies have pledged into Afghanistan by mid-2010, Reuters reported 7 December, citing a Pentagon official. U.S. Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Michele Flournoy said some of the additional troops allies have committed are already in Afghanistan. What?

The numbers reports start to look like a shell game. The NATO countries apparently are getting credit as supporting the US new plan by double counting forces they deployed to improve security during the elections. 

The US press is reporting as future increases some forces that are already counted in the current totals of NATO and International Security Assistance Force. Extending time in country for forces already present does not raise the total of new forces to near 40,000, as one news commentator reported yesterday.  This kind of troop math might make good sound bites in NATO and the US, but the Taliban are not deceived. So how many countries really are adding to their commitments already in Afghanistan? Clearly not the 20 mentioned during the weekend.

Iran:  Update. Today more than 2,000 Iranian students gathered outside Tehran University's technical facility and marched toward the university's mosque, BBC Monitoring reported, citing Fars News Agency. Coinciding with Students Day, the students chanted "death to opponents of leaders" and "God is great; Khamenei is the leader," Fars

Fars did not report the violent clashes in Tehran between police and other students who are continuing to express their opposition to the fraudulent re-election of President Ahmadi-Nejad.

The BBC reported at one university, students tore down a poster of Mr Ahmadi-Nejad and trampled on it.  Elsewhere, in a highly unusual move, they chanted against the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Police and members of the government's Basij militia tried to contain the protest within the universities. At the gates of Tehran University and several other universities, there were angry clashes.  As in previous protests, opposition supporters, some wearing green scarves and masks, chanted "Death to the Dictator". Green is the color adopted by the reformist movement in recent months.

The significance of the protests is that they show the student opposition movement is still alive, for whatever that is worth.  They also show it is fragmented, dispersed and has no impact on national policy except to reinforce the harshness and accelerate the speed of the leadership movement to oligarchic dictatorship

Venezuela: For the record. Today President Chavez announced the arrival of a first shipment of modern tanks from Russia. He said the tanks are needed because Colombia plans to wage war against Venezuela!

Bolivia:  Update. President Evo Morales is claiming victory in Sunday’s presidential election and looks to have secured a second five-year term. Exit polls suggest Mr Morales polled at least 63% of the vote.

The tragedy is that the poor are the electoral majority, but the rich minority controls the wealth.

End of NightWatch for 7 December.

Filed under: international

Rich says...

The use of pyrotechnics during a nightclub anniversary celebration in Perm has resulted in many injuries and deaths. RT.com has provided several reports and video in this compilation clip. It runs approximately eight minutes.

Filed under: international

NightWatch

For the Night of 3 December 2009

Japan: Update. The leader of Japan's Social Democratic Party (SDP) threatened to leave the Democratic Party’s ruling coalition if her views on the US military base on Okinawa were ignored, Reuters reported 3 December. Mizuho Fukushima said if the government goes ahead with the existing agreement, she and the SDP will have to make an important decision. Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama, head of the coalition, said he takes SDP views seriously. He stated that lawmakers must work hard to find a solution.

Pakistan:  The Daily Times ran an item on 4 December that claimed Pakistan was not consulted about the new US strategy in which Pakistan’s cooperation is vital to success in one of its three major objectives.  The implication was that this was a serious oversight.

Prime Minister Gilani said he wanted more clarity on the parts that affect Pakistan.

Pakistanis also are displeased that their border region was singled-out as the safehaven for al Qaida, the epicenter of international terrorism.  They know it; but just don’t like it broadcast.

The Afghan Taliban leadership under Mullah Omar is often referred to as the Quetta Shura … because it operates with impunity from Quetta, Baluchistan Province, Pakistan. Every body knows it.

Comment:  The Quetta Shura is known to every one in Pakistan leadership circles. Of all the Afghan anti-government groups operating out of Pakistan, it is arguably the easiest to close down.  Of all the actions that might have been taken to improve security in Afghanistan, the one never attempted was shutting down the Quetta Shura, not in nine years.

Consider:  Pakistan and the NGOs relocated up to 4 million Afghan refugees back to Afghanistan in the early 2000s, after the Taliban leadership ran away from Kabul to Quetta. It would seem a small thing to arrest and deport Mullah Omar’s crew in Quetta. There really is no explanation for the obvious protection of Omar and company, and blame lies in Washington as well as Islamabad.

Nothing the US and Pakistan have done in Pakistan’s frontier regions has helped improve the security situation in Afghanistan.  Pakistan’s Actions in Swat and South Waziristan have had no measurable impact on the Afghanistan fighting. The way those operations have progressed shows they were shaped primarily by Pakistani concerns.

Al Qaida is not a significant actor in Afghanistan, according to the testimony this week before the US Congress and in statements through the year by the National Security advisor and others.

Moreover, all the Remotely Piloted Vehicle attacks for the last four years against al Qaida in Pakistan also have had no demonstrable impact in improving security in Afghanistan.

A new strategy has been announced. All the winks and nods plus the unspoken understandings of the past eight years that have passed for policy can be dumped.  Omar should no longer get a pass from the US or Pakistan.

Afghan, American, NATO and Pakistani soldiers have died by the hundreds, while Omar and company thrive in Quetta. This is the functional equivalent of refusing to bomb Hanoi during most of the Vietnam War.

Why not try a few RPV attacks, or better, some Pakistan Army Special Security Group operations against the Quetta Shura at long last and see whether they have an effect on the insurgency.  Get Musharraf’s old command into the action, the SSG, and let the world see whether they are as good as their boasting.

The NightWatch view is that the Quetta Shura is less in command than in coordination of operations and finances. Communications are too poor and Pashtun commanders too independent to obey Mullah Omar unless the Shura sends an emissary, apparently.  However, The Shura’s operation appears to be essential as the channel for distributing money from mainly Arab donors.

Omar and his men already have shown that they run away when their personal safety is at risk. So put him and his cohorts at risk, put them on the run and disrupt the coordination and distribution operation. That will not end the fighting, but, in a month, almost all southern groups will run out of key bomb making ingredients and ammunition.  The unclassified reporting on the clashes suggests resupply from Pakistan or Iran is cyclical, probably from a few weeks to a month, depending on the province, the size of the fighting groups and the complexity of the operations they execute.

If a person digs hard enough on the Net, he could probably find a good telephone number and address for Omar’s family. So, Pakistani SSG, how hard could this be? And while you are at it, lean on the Haqqanis and Hekmatyar who also have had a pass for nine years, killing Americans, Afghans, NATO and Pakistani soldiers.

Afghanistan:  Contradicting official testimony given to the US Congress yesterday, a province administrator for Nimruz Province said elements within Iran are, in fact, providing funds and weapons to the Taliban in the western provinces, Radio Free Afghanistan reported 3 December.

Asadullah Haqdost told Radio Free Afghanistan that security officials have "reliable" evidence that support from Iran is going to Taliban fighters in western Afghanistan. He said there is a training camp in Iran where some fighters were trained and equipped before being sent to Afghanistan to attack Afghans and foreign troops.

Comment:  Weapons caches and other facts supporting Haqdost’s statements are well known and regularly reported in Afghan media and have been for years.  Shaped charges ostensibly made in Iran have been found in more than one cache. Taliban groups in Farah, Herat and Nimruz could not operate without access to Iran and support from Iran. The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps are in the east in some force because several senior officers were killed by Sunni Jundullah outlaws in late October.

Politics. President Karzai said on Thursday he was willing to talk with Taliban chief Mullah Omar in a bid to bring peace to the country, provided the move would have the backing of the US and other international partners. In an interview with The Associated Press, Karzai said that “sections of the international community” had undermined previous peace overtures to the Taliban by harassing mediators. “The fight against terrorism and extremism cannot be won by fighting alone,” Karzai said.

Karzai did not identify those who undermined past peace overtures.

Russia-Iran:  Russia has "no information that Iran is working on the creation of a nuclear weapon," Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said 3 December in response to a reporter's question as to whether Iran was close to making an atomic bomb, Reuters reported. Putin did not answer a reporter who asked if Russia would support sanctions against Iran.

Yet Putin did answer the question on sanctions because in making the statement quoted above Putin shaped the attitudes of the Security Council. It’s a lot like jury tampering. Russia will side with China to block a hard hitting sanctions resolution. 

US-Iran:  The US reaffirmed today that the deadline for Iran to accept international agreements for uranium enrichment is the end of the year, The Associated Press reported. White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs told reporters that members of the P-5+1 have discussed the fact that "time is running out."   See Putin’s statement above.

Somalia: Witnesses and senior government sources said an explosion that tore through a hotel in the Somali capital of Mogadishu killed three government ministers and at least one other person, Dawn News reported 3 December. The source of the blast at the Shamo Hotel was not immediately clear, but witnesses said it appeared to be an attack targeting a graduation ceremony held by Benadir University and attended by many government officials.

Senior government sources said Health Minister Qamar Aden Ali, Education Minister Ahmed Abdulahi Waayeel and Higher Education Minister Ibrahim Hassan Addow died in the blast.

Deaths from the suicide bomb explosion rose to 57, with as many as 200 wounded, Xinhua reported, citing local ambulance services.

The key point is that the pro-US government in Mogadishu is fighting over neighborhoods in Mogadishu. That is the extent of its writ in its own capital. Still, al Shabaab and its Islamist supporters seem unable to take control of the capital in one movement. So death by a thousand cuts continues for the Transitional Federal Government.

Kenya:  Update. The government has secured its border with Somalia to stop illegal immigrants, including possible members of the Somali militant group al Shabaab, from entering the country, Kenyan Defense Minister Yusuf Haji said 3 December, Kenya Broadcasting Corporation reported. Haji said the government is on a high-security alert. He also said Kenyan citizens have been asked to report any suspicious people.

Guinea:   Government leader Captain Moussa “Dadis” Camara was attacked by soldiers at a military camp on 3 December and has been taken to the presidential palace, Reuters and the BBC reported, citing a statement from Dadis’ communications minister. Dadis was injured but is okay. A renegade element of the presidential guard is responsible for the attack, which was an assassination attempt. Dadis ousted the civilian government in a coup 11 months ago. Apparently the coup monger has yet to consolidate anything.

US-Mexico: The US Treasury Department has frozen the U.S.-based assets of 10 companies and 22 individuals believed to be linked to the Mexican drug cartel Beltran-Leyva Organization (BLO), which is accused of smuggling drugs into the United States and of murdering Mexican counter-narcotics agents, Reuters reported today.  The companies targeted have locations throughout Mexico, and are involved in businesses such as air and vehicle shipping, electronics retailing, hospitality services and health-products trade.

According to the news services from the Texas border, marijuana smuggling is way up but human smuggling is way down, to oversimplify a complex security problem. The question for the Treasury is why does this process take so long and seems so scatter-shot? 

Treasury and its Office of Intelligence and Analysis should be one of the best staffed and best backed intelligence operations in Washington.  Despite a small staff, OIA does real work towards permanent solutions. Doubters only need to ask the Banco Delta Asia and North Korea.

This is tonight’s good news – one Department that fights security problems with the tools that the US excels at:  brains and finance.

End of NightWatch for 3 December.

 

Filed under: international

NightWatch

For the Night of 2 December 2009

North Korea: Update.  On the second day of the currency exchange, authorities froze all cash transactions using the green, internal won until next Monday. Transactions  involving foreign currencies and the international won are still allowed at some restaurants and shops for foreigners.

Possibly the most important impact of the freeze will be to force all foreign currency stashes in private hands into the open and into the government.  The government is looking for sources of cash.

Note to new analysts:  This kind of government action is always intended to confiscate wealth. In 1978 Vietnam ordered that no private citizens could possess gold, as a measure to confiscate the holdings of Chinese Vietnamese. Overseas Chinese, among others, are well known for holding gold in reserve precisely to guard against government manipulation of paper currency. The Vietnamese not only confiscated their wealth, but forced the Chinese Vietnamese to leave the country.

Analysts should watch for a backlash against the government over this.  Koreans tend to be volatile, even in the stodgy, stoic North.

India:  For the record.  The Indian Navy will add an additional 40 warships, 60 aircraft and 60 helicopters over the next ten years, Press Trust of India reported 2 December, citing a statement from Chief of Naval Staff Admiral Nirmal Verma. The expansion will include destroyers, frigates, fast attack craft and interceptor boats, submarines and fleet tankers, and 34 ships will be built in domestic shipyards, with six built in foreign shipyards. Verma said India is adding the ships and aircraft to protect its maritime interests in the Indian Ocean and counter other naval powers.

This announcement implies a strategic decision to make obvious to all that India is the dominant naval power in the Indian Ocean, with all that such a decision encompasses.

PakistanSecurity.  At least two people were killed and four injured in a suicide attack close to the naval headquarters in Islamabad, Pakistan's ARY News reported 2 December. According to various sources, a suicide bomber detonated when naval guards stopped him at the main gate.

This appears to be another in the series of attacks that retaliate for the Army offensive in South Waziristan.

Karachi Mayor Mustafa Kamal said 2 December in an interview that Taliban militants are financing their operations through kidnapping and drug trafficking in Karachi, Reuters reported. Kamal said militants are kidnapping people in Karachi and that the ransom money is being taken to Waziristan, and that the largest portion of the Taliban's revenue is earned through its activities in Karachi.

Multiple reports from McClatchy news investigators in Karachi have been relating events and items that bear out the Mayor’s story.  Some parts of Karachi are completely under Pashtun control, including both Afghan and Pakistani Pashtuns.  The Karachi port operations finance fundamentalist Islamic terrorism along with more legitimate business interests.

Reactions to the President’s speech:

Pakistan-Afghanistan: Sirajuddin Haqqani, a Pakistan-based Afghan Taliban clan leader, said the coming surge of troops into Afghanistan will not prevent an eventual Western defeat, DPA reported 2 December. Haqqani, son of former mujahideen commander Jalaluddin Haqqani, also told Geo television that the United States was sending secret messages to the Taliban to request talks.

Afghanistan Taliban:  “Many more troops the enemy sends against our Afghan mujahedin, they are committed to increasing the number of mujahedin and strengthen their resistance,” the Taliban said in a statement e-mailed to media.

Around the world: In Europe the reaction to the speech was roundly favorable. All the Scandinavian states plus Poland, Macedonia, South Korea supported the US President. France and Germany were more reserved.

Even Russia appears supportive, especially in anticipation of increased American use of Russian rails and airspace for supplying the reinforcements.  “The measures relative to the new American strategy in Afghanistan and Pakistan set out by US President Barack Obama are all welcomed positively in Moscow," a Foreign Ministry statement said.

The response from China that Xinhua published 3 December is that the new US strategy faces hurdles. Pakistan has been supportive but India has been skeptical.

Iran-UK:  Iran’s Siri naval guard command announced that the five detained Britons were released, Fars news agency reported today.  The naval guard command said the passengers of the yacht entered Iranian waters in the Persian Gulf by “mistake.”  Investigations and inquiry into the five British yachtsmen's case established that their illegal entrance was accidental. The decision was made to release the detainees.

The Iranians have used this incident to establish a baseline of fairness in their legal investigation procedures. That would seem to be an ominous portent for the three American backpackers.

Saudi Arabia: Update. A Saudi naval force official said two patrol ships joined the battle against infiltrators, combing an area of 200 nautical miles on the Red Sea, the Saudi Gazette reported. The two ships, Hitain and Badr, started cruising the territorial waters to cut off the supply of food and arms to infiltrators. More ships from the Western Fleet are expected to support ships already cruising in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea. The official said the Saudi navy is in full control of its territorial waters.

Lebanon:  The Cabinet voted today to approve a policy statement allowing Hezbollah the right to use arms against Israel, Agence France-Presse reported, citing a statement from Lebanese Information Minister Tarek Mitri.

Mitri said the policy statement will be made public on 7 December and that the final draft included language to permit "Lebanon, its government, its people, its army and its resistance" to liberate all Lebanese territory, with "resistance" being the commonly used term in Lebanon to refer to Hezbollah.

This policy purports to legalize the military operations of an autonomous non-state entity within the Lebanese state.  It is a significant measure of the failure of western policies to strengthen the pro-western factions in the Beirut government. This is a significant advantage for Iran, Hezbollah’s benefactor because it legalizes support for the “resistance.”  In a future Israeli war in Lebanon, Hezbollah is now part of the Lebanese national forces. In other words, western military arms aid for the Lebanese Army apparently could be transferred to the “resistance.”

Honduras:  Update. The Honduran Congress decisively rejected the restitution of deposed President Mel Zelaya in a vote of 62 to 8, after six hours of debate on 2 December. Only 70 of the 128 legislators cast ballots in the evening vote.

The Congress began on Wednesday to debate whether or not to reinstate Zelaya but the powerful National Party announced its support for the 28 June decree that removed Zelaya, thereby virtually quashing any chance of his return to power.

"We declare ourselves in favor of the ratification of Decree 141/2009 approved on June 28," said party chief Rodolfo Irias before the full Congress, and the statement essentially closed the door on any reinstatement of Zelaya because the votes of the 55 National Party lawmakers were necessary to return him to power.

"This position is unanimous, removed from any opportunism," added Irias, the head of the party of Porfirio Lobo, who won the presidential election last Sunday, a balloting result that was rejected by the majority of the international community with the argument that it came about amid a rupture of the country's constitutional order.

The calculations and permutations of possible outcomes were made pointless by the lopsided vote. Zelaya supporters in Congress failed to show up, despite the fact that they were the majority party.  The defeat in Congress did not prevent Zelaya from broadcasting his vitriole from the Brazilian Embassy, which probably ought to consider packing up and leaving Tegucigalpa. Sic transit gloria Zelayae.

Still, it is not clear how many popular and Congressional votes it will take to convince outsiders that the Hondurans rejected Zelaya and his party. This is a study in democracy.

End of NightWatch for 2 December.

Filed under: international

hebanna says...

Die Schweizer haben nicht nur zu Minaretten eine besonde Meinung. Auch bei der Kleinkinderbetreuung sind sie eigen: http://ow.ly/HhaC

Filed under: International

hebanna says...

Hebamme mit Herz für Haiti: http://ow.ly/GiSG

Filed under: International

sighnpen says...

ええと概略を話すと、昨夜G7でドバイショックを話し合ったらしいという事実があります
これに基づいていくつかの首脳が声明を出しているという事実があります
声明を出している首脳は、少なくとも英・加・露の三ヶ国です

でもG7って日米英仏独伊加の枠組みであったはずで、露を含むのであればG8で
話し合ったらしいという報道がなされるはずである

しかしG7で話し合ったという報道がなされている

これから導かれる結論は、G7の枠に露が入る代わりに押し出された国がある
単に報道が間違っている のどちらか二つだと思うのですが、どうなんでしょうか?

(via yamo)

うわー

(via -nobby-) (via bo-rude) (via kml)

 

Japanese Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii raised the prospect of a G7 joint statement on currencies in Tokyo after the Dubai debt worries pushed the Japanese yen currency to a new 14-year high against the dollar. But no such statement has been issued and the yen retreated from its earlier highs
via Banks, world leaders play down Dubai debt threat | Reuters Fri Nov 27, 2009 uk.reuters.com

 

 

Filed under: international