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Where do we go from here with Gold?
Tue Nov 17 14:42:33 2009 in Breaking News - GeneralBy: OilPrice.com
Can precious metals keep on flying?
Are you sold on gold? The precious metal outperformed every major equity index in the world in 2008. The question is, can gold—and other precious metals—keep on flying? Or would buying today be buying high and selling low?
Precious metals have always been intriguing to investors because they tend to hold their value. In times of geopolitical crisis or currency devaluation, for example, the value of paper money might fluctuate, but a hard asset will always be worth something. As a result, historically, precious metals have been considered a “safe haven” in times of economic and financial instability.
That brings us to why gold is on a tear today. It declined in 2008 and early 2009 as panicked investors rushed into cash in an attempt to weather the financial crisis. But sometime in the middle on 2009, when investors began to move their money from the sidelines, gold started to rally. It returned 32.59% through the third quarter of 2009, vs. 19.26% for stocks.
The question is, where can we expect gold to go from here? In order to predict whether gold prices will skyrocket or come crashing down, it’s important to understand the principal factors that affect the price of any commodity: supply and demand.
The supply side of the equation is not particularly relevant in regard to gold because gold supplies remain fairly constant. That’s because production has not significantly increased due to a lack of new mining sites. Should supplies increase, however, investors may want to be cautious.
The demand side of the equation, then, is the one gold investors must look at. And as we noted above, demand for gold tends to increase when investors have a lack of confidence in the U.S. economy and financial markets.
That’s certainly the case today. In fact, we see two factors, that could lead gold to outperform in the near future: inflation and currency devaluation. In response to the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009, the Federal Reserve injected massive amounts of liquidity into the money markets. Ultimately, that increase in the money supply could devalue the U.S. dollar and lead to inflation. In fact, the U.S. dollar is already shockingly low. On October 14, 2009, it fell to a 14-month low against the euro, hitting $1.4947, the weakest since August 2008, according to Bloomberg. And while inflation is not yet a problem, economists are on the lookout for it.
These conditions led Standard & Poor’s (S&P) to raise its gold price assumption for 2010 from $750 per ounce to $800 per ounce. “Investors seeking a hedge against inflation risks and uncertainty in the financial markets continue to support gold prices,” the S&P analysts write. “The metal's properties as a safe haven, and to a lesser extent the demand for jewelry, also support its longer-term price prospects.”
S&P’s estimate, however, may be on the low side. As of November 2009, gold was trading at more than $1,000 per ounce. And since gold exceeded $1,000 per ounce level, the price has been extremely resilient, with no meaningful pullback seen. There have been periods of profit-taking, but increased demand quickly appears on any weakness in price.
In sum, then, good old-fashioned gold fever is back—and investors who are looking for a promising trend may want to consider investing in it and other precious metals.
But don’t consider gold an investment only for troubled times. One of the greatest advantages of precious metals exists regardless of economic and market conditions. Precious metals tend to perform differently from other assets. As a result, investing in precious metals may be a good diversification strategy for a portfolio comprised mainly of stocks, bonds and real estate—in all environments.
This article was written by OilPrice.com - who offer free information and analysis on Energy and Commodities. The site has sections devoted to Fossil Fuels, Alternative Energy, Metals, Oil prices and Geopolitics. To find out more visit their website at: http://www.oilprice.com
Article originally appeared: 17-11-2009
Jewellery is normally stamped with a marking to show the type of gold.
For 9ct gold the stamp will normally be either the number 375, 9ct, 9kt or 9K.
For 14ct gold the stamp will normally be either the number 585, 14ct, 14kt or 14K.
For 18ct gold the stamp will normally be either the number 750, 18ct, 18kt or 18K.
The stamps only indicate the carat of metal. They do not indicate the color of the metal. So for example an 18ct yellow gold ring would have a stamp of 750 as would an 18ct white gold ring.
9ct gold contains 37.5% pure gold (375 parts per thousand parts).14ct gold contains 58.5% pre gold (585 parts per thousand parts).
18ct gold contains 75% pure gold (750 parts per thousand parts).
The remainder of the metals is made up of a combination of alloys, different metals which can help to give the metal its unique appearance, such as a different color.

Are you sold on gold? The precious metal outperformed every major equity index in the world in 2008. The question is, can gold? and other precious metals?keep on flying? Or would buying today be buying high and selling low?
Precious metals have always been intriguing to investors because they tend to hold their value. In times of geopolitical crisis or currency devaluation, for example, the value of paper money might fluctuate, but a hard asset will always be worth something. As a result, historically, precious metals have been considered a ?safe haven? in times of economic and financial instability. That brings us to why gold is on a tear today. It declined in 2008 and early 2009 as panicked investors rushed into cash in an attempt to weather the financial crisis. But sometime in the middle on 2009, when investors began to move their money from the sidelines, gold started to rally. It returned 32.59% through the third quarter of 2009, vs. 19.26% for stocks. The question is, where can we expect gold to go from here? In order to predict whether gold prices will skyrocket or come crashing down, it?s important to understand the principal factors that affect the price of any commodity: supply and demand. The supply side of the equation is not particularly relevant in regard to gold because gold supplies remain fairly constant. That?s because production has not significantly increased due to a lack of new mining sites. Should supplies increase, however, investors may want to be cautious. The demand side of the equation, then, is the one gold investors must look at. And as we noted above, demand for gold tends to increase when investors have a lack of confidence in the U.S. economy and financial markets. That?s certainly the case today. In fact, we see two factors, that could lead gold to outperform in the near future: inflation and currency devaluation. In response to the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009, the Federal Reserve injected massive amounts of liquidity into the money markets. Ultimately, that increase in the money supply could devalue the U.S. dollar and lead to inflation. In fact, the U.S. dollar is already shockingly low. On October 14, 2009, it fell to a 14-month low against the euro, hitting $1.4947, the weakest since August 2008, according to Bloomberg. And while inflation is not yet a problem, economists are on the lookout for it. These conditions led Standard & Poor?s (S&P) to raise its gold price assumption for 2010 from $750 per ounce to $800 per ounce. ?Investors seeking a hedge against inflation risks and uncertainty in the financial markets continue to support gold prices,? the S&P analysts write. ?The metal's properties as a safe haven, and to a lesser extent the demand for jewelry, also support its longer-term price prospects.? S&P?s estimate, however, may be on the low side. As of November 2009, gold was trading at more than $1,000 per ounce. And since gold exceeded $1,000 per ounce level, the price has been extremely resilient, with no meaningful pullback seen. There have been periods of profit-taking, but increased demand quickly appears on any weakness in price. In sum, then, good old-fashioned gold fever is back? and investors who are looking for a promising trend may want to consider investing in it and other precious metals. But don?t consider gold an investment only for troubled times. One of the greatest advantages of precious metals exists regardless of economic and market conditions. Precious metals tend to perform differently from other assets. As a result, investing in precious metals may be a good diversification strategy for a portfolio comprised mainly of stocks, bonds and real estate?in all environments. This article was written by OilPrice.com - who offer free information and analysis on Energy and Commodities. The site has sections devoted to Fossil Fuels, Alternative Energy, Metals, Oil prices and Geopolitics. To find out more visit their website at: http://www.oilprice.comBy: Eric_deCarbonnel"... All the gold that has ever been produced would fit in a solid cube of about 19 meters on each side, and this cube is only expanding by about 12 centimeters a year (2%). Since the value and supply of gold itself are fairly constant over long periods of time, the main driver of gold price fluctuations is the ebb and flow of confidence in paper currencies. Rising gold prices are, therefore, a signal of a weakening currency, which is why governments hate them and try to suppress them."CONTINUED: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article14818.html
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In early 2008 it was reported that at least some of the gold bars in the vaults at the National Bank of Ethiopia were fake. The discovery was made when bars shipped from Ethiopia to South Africa were returned after they were identified as being gilded steel.
Gilded steel is a very unconvincing form of fake gold because the density of the iron alloy is significantly less. A steel bar identical in volume to the standard 400 troy ounce gold bars commonly used in bank-to-bank trades would weigh only 162.5 troy ounces (about sixty percent lighter). Anyone familiar with handling gold bars would easily identify them as counterfeit.
Even lead, a common heavy metal, is a poor substitute as it is only 59% the density of gold. One of the things that historically made gold so attractive to be used as money was its unmistakable density.
Nowadays we know of several metals that have similar densities to gold, such as the heavier platinum-group metals. However, using these metals to produce fake gold is unprofitable due to their high cost.Methinks gold is rising because investors are anticipating a big second stimulus to counter the rising unemployment rate.
I’m a fan of gold as insurance, especially for high net worth individuals who want some of their wealth “out of the system.” It protects against violent deflationary or inflationary episodes, both of which can wipe out the value of paper wealth very quickly. That said, the premiums to buy that insurance are getting pretty expensive…
Personally, I don’t see how we escape this crisis without a dramatic decline in paper wealth. Credit can’t expand forever, much as the Fed and Treasury would like for that to happen. Eventually the cycle goes into reverse because the government no longer has the balance sheet capacity to absorb more of the private sector’s liabilities. When that happens, asset values crater. The economy is so over-levered in my estimation, its equity value is probably negative. There’s a reason the Dow declined 90% a few years into the Depression. (Stocks have some option value, so they aren’t going to zero.)
The government is aware of how violent deflation can be…ergo, the stupendous show of monetary and fiscal support over the past year. But seems to me all we’re doing is re-inflating the bubble, using the public balance sheet for financing instead of private balance sheets.
Some would argue that so long as there is an “output gap” this won’t be inflationary. I disagree. I think runaway stimulus means the U.S. will eventually face a “sudden stop” situation á la Argentina or Ireland when credit markets lose confidence in U.S. paper. They’ll see the only way they will be paid back is via direct monetization. When that happens, the bid for dollar-denominated assets could disappear more quickly than folks might be willing to admit.
But these dynamics could literally take years to play out. We still print the currency in which our debt is payable. Some consider this a huge advantage. To me, we just have more rope to hang ourselves with.
And I’m not saying this is going to happen. It’s entirely possible we get our act together and let the economy deflate gradually, using stimulus to support a gradual de-levering of the economy. But politically that may not be possible, and so the correction may be forced on us. To hedge that risk, it’s not a bad idea to diversify out of paper wealth into tangible wealth.
BTW, I don’t think you make money on gold in the long run. I think, at best, you protect the purchasing power of the dollars you already have.
From Marketwatch:
Gold futures rose to a new record high of $1,100 an ounce Friday after data showed the U.S. unemployment rate topped 10% in October, raising the metal’s appeal as a safe asset. Gold for November delivery gained 1% to $1,100 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest level for a front-month contract. The more actively traded December contract rose to $1,101.90 an ounce.