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'Benefiting The Whole Football World' - East Against West, Frank Lowy and The FIFA World Cup
"We are able to show that bringing the game to Australia and having the Asian continent with us at the same time-zone will benefit not only Australia, not only Asia, but the whole football world"
Frank Lowy, Chief of Australia's FIFA World Cup Bid and Australia's Richest Man
Asia comprises the world's fastest growing economies, the fastest growing television and media audiences and the fastest growing consumer markets. Intuitively, Lowy's claim seems to be sensible. But how valid is this regional bias? The three points below try to open this up a bit.
1. The combined audiences for West and East are broadly similar
By looking at FIFA's published TV and Out Of Home (which includes pubs and other public viewing areas) cumulative viewing figures by region we can compare the 2002 World Cup held in Asia with the 2006 World Cup held in Europe.
In terms of the number of viewers, comparing Europe with Asia is hard to swing in Europe's favour. In 2002 there were 2.7 Asian viewers to every European viewer. In 2006 this figure was cut to 1.6 but still, this is a huge difference. However, this only takes into account numbers for Asia and Europe. 'East' and 'West' is much broader.
By grouping together figures for Europe with North America, South America and Central America (EurAm) we get a better idea of what Western audiences actually add up to. We can then compare this with an Eastern group comprised of the Asia and Oceana (APAC). When we look at East vs. West in this hollistic way we get a slightly more even result. In the 2002 World Cup, held in Asia, there were only 1.3 Eastern (APAC) viewers to Western (EurAm) viewers but in the 2006 World Cup there were 1.2 Western viewers to Eastern viewers - despite the fact that the Germany World Cup was broadcast in 11 fewer EurAm territories than the 2002 World Cup. So there wasn't that big a difference after all. The audiences are pretty much similar from East to West. The drop off in audience attributable to changes in time-zones is nearly identical with both regions losing roughly 7% of their audience when the games were shown at more unsociable hours. Let's not forget, though, that with China's population alone being double that of the whole of Europe, Asia's 7% certainly represents more people. This brings us on to our next point - although the audiences are roughly the same, and the drop off is the same, advertisers will look for efficiency over reach and this may present the West with another argument against the Lowry.
2. Rights fees are based on efficiency, not just reach
Lowry also spoke about the revenue that an Australasian World Cup would bring in. He didn't go into specifics in the article I read but someone told me he'd quoted a difference of +$1bn. That's a lot of money and I'm not sure where he gets it from. Despite offering huge reach, there's going to be an awful lot of wastage in a market where the audiences are almost inconceivably large. In EurAm, penetration is much higher with a greater proportion of the total populations watching or experiencing the tournament. I don't want to waste any money speaking to people who aren't in the mood to listen, especially if there's millions of them. Also, because there aren't many national broadcasters in the regions, the scope for competition among those looking to secure broadcast rights is smaller. Coupled with the lack of efficiency, this makes for risky - and tricky - business for those formulating broadcast revenue prediction models. Although, broadcast revenue isn't the only source of income from the tournament.
3. A successful event needs the stadia to be full Although we hate to admit it, everyone secretly loves the English. English football fans, like many of our counterparts, bring with them a fantastic enthusiasm for the game that heralds from decades of disappointment and ecstasy from following the nation's team. World Cup tournaments need these fans. They need them to fill up the stadiums and prevent what happened at some of Beijing's Olympic events where organisers had to give tickets away to locals for free (retail price was very high - around £90 per ticket) in order to fill the seats. In Sydney's Olympic games, kids were actually transported to the venues by buses to fill the venues with the right kind of audience. What's the lesson here? Big TV audiences don't necessarily equate to a success on a national level.We have a little time to go before the decisions for 2018 and 2022 will be made (December 2010) but at the moment, it seems as though the argument isn't as black and white as we may have originally thought. Let's see what FIFA say.You can read more about Lowry's argument here
Picture found here
Will it be the World Cup of the team, not the Superstar?
We are not talking about riots, or issues with South Africa’s infrastructure – we are talking about the potential for the two best players on the planet not being present next summer. That very outcome is hanging over Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi. Not only is this a massive issue for FIFA’s PR and Marketing team, but it is also a massive blow to all those who love the game.
Firstly, Ronaldo’s Portugal have struggled throughout their Qualification Group and look like sneaking into the Play-offs at the expense of Sweden. However, that will mean immense pressure and some very strong teams in the Play-offs - potentially the winker might not get the chance to play on the greatest stage of all when in the form of his life. He may be arrogant, he may fall to the ground easily but he is an amazing talent, and the most expensive footballer in history. Although Portugal have knocked out England in recent times, I would love to see Ronaldo lighting up the tournament, at least up until the Quarter Finals.
Secondly, the shambles that is the management style of Diego Maradona looks likely to condemn Argentina to miss their first FIFA World Cup in 39 years. Late, late, late in to Saturday night a last minute goal by the 57 year old striker Martin Palermo (okay, 35) meant Argentina scraped a victory against Peru (the same Peru team that had played eight games, lost them all, scored two goals and conceded 24). They now have to look to their final match away against Uruguay and hope results go their way to clinch the last Qualification spot or even the South American Play-Off place. Maradona has used a staggering 70-something players during Qualification and by no means is he left with an easy fixture as Uruguay have a phenomenal record at Montevideo.
He seems to make impulsive decisions before and during matches. If Messi ends up missing the 2010 FIFA World Cup, not only will Adidas be smarting (he is their lead global athlete) but the tournament will feel like something is missing – now imagine if both were to miss out.
What this could mean is a real shift in the perception of the 2010 FIFA World Cup. Usually a tournament is talked about through the players. The Ronaldo World Cup of 2002, the Baggio World Cup of 1994, Pele 1958, Maradona 1986.
The 2010 FIFA World Cup could change that and move from superstar flair players, to organised and combative teams – working together towards the common goal. Victory.
This will give the likes of Germany and excellent chance in South Africa, and also should see Brazil do well as Dunga has evolved a team of eleven isolated players in 2006 into a physical and powerful unit, with a hint of flair.
I can’t wait for next summer, but I just hope that come December 4th Portugal and Argentina are in the hat and we avoid a FIFA World Cup being remembered as per Euro 2004 – the Greek Tragedy.
Thanks Emile : Now let's give Carlton a chance
Michael Owen: Has Fergie lost his marbles?
Manchester United are on the verge of signing Michael Owen on a free transfer from Newcastle United.
Just weeks after announcing that they would only sign young talent, Sir Alex seems set to take a gamble on Owen. Has he lost his marbles?
Yes this is the player who has a record of 40 goals from 89 England caps - but he is also the player who was dropped last season by manager Alan Shearer (and even by caretaker boss Chris Hughton) when his team were desperate for goals. He has only managed about 30 odd appearances a season across the last two years and was even rumoured to be looking at retirement.
His career seemed to be set for bit of a nose-dive, his advisors sent out a glossy brochure of his talents and marketing appeal but only a potential offer of a 'dream' move to Hull City or Stoke materialised - hardly what Michael is used to from his days with Liverpool and Madrid.
Yet out of nowhere come the reports that he is to undergo a medical at Manchester United. Now Fergie is obviously confident in Owen's mentality and believes that if he can get the boy fit then he will guarantee goals. But it is very unlike Ferguson to sign injury prone players. Only once before has he taken such a gamble with the signing of Owen Hargreaves......who is currently out for 24 months undergoing a leg replacement operation.
It seems like a huge risk, and is one that not even Blackburn Rovers are willing to take.
However, I can see the logic. When you look at what Ferguson has lost from Ronaldo - Pace, width and goals - he needs to reshape his squad. Ideally he wanted Ribery and Benzema but it seems that no French players are allowed to sign for anybody other than Real Madrid since Zidane was appointed chief scout. That has meant that Fergie needs to get creative in the market.
The recent signing of Valencia will provide the pace and the width on the right flank, but the Equadorian is unlikely to reach double figures on the scoresheet. The massive hole for United to try and fill comes from the goals Ronaldo brought to the team. Okay, Wayne Rooney is an unbelievable talent but he is not a goalscorer. Not of the type that United's success has been built on. He is not a Cole, Yorke, Van Nistelrooy or Ronaldo. United need goals, and Ferguson obviously sees Owen as the answer.
If Owen stays fit for the season he will easily score goals at United. He will have two great incentives, one will be the obvious clause related contract he will be on, and the other will be the FIFA World Cup. If he plays well for United, scores goals and builds an effective partnership with Rooney then Capello will not ignore him, and maybe he can repeat his epic performance from 1998.
Only time will tell if Fergie has lost his marbles, but I have a feeling he likes the odds of this bet..
So far, so good...
So Spain have finally lost a match, there 36 match unbeaten run that looked set to carry them to glory has come to an end, oh wait, no. This is the U-21 Spanish.
England's young lions who turned them over in the UEFA European U-21 Championships 2-1 . A powerful performance masterminded by Stuart Pearce that saw England play intelligently with the ball, create chances and be solid at the back to cement their place in the Semi-finals.
Although nowhere near the same level as the FIFA World Cup, it does start to give hope that the next crop of England players and I am sure that a number of these lads will be starting to think this could springboard them on to the plane to South Africa if they return with the trophy. Muamba and Gibbs were excellent and Milner, despite missing a penalty, again looked a solid player. Walcott perhaps had a point to prove and hopefully his impact in the 2nd half with make him believe in the tournament again and not keep dreaming of the Seniors.
I will be intrigues to see what happens after the tournament, as there are bound to be numerous scouts attending these championships over the FIFA Confederations Cup - if you recall it was this tournament that launched Massimo Maccarone, Mark Hately and Bobby Zamora, so watch this space...
