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Met Office: Global-average temperature records
Global-average temperature records
Dr Peter Stott
Climate Monitoring Expert
Global-average temperature records are vital to help understand how our climate is changing. Here Dr Peter Stott explains how these records are made.
What are they?
To understand changes and variations in our climate it is essential to know how the surface temperature changes — from month to month, up to decade to decade. Global-average temperature records provide this vital information.
From these records we can see how warm specific months, years or decades are, and we can discern trends in our climate over longer periods of time. Global records go back about 160 years, giving a long period from which to draw conclusions about how our climate is changing.
There are three centres which calculate global-average temperature each month.
- Met Office, in collaboration with the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia (UK)
- Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), which is part of NASA (USA)
- National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), which is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (USA)
These work independently and use different methods in the way they collect and process data to calculate the global-average temperature. Despite this, the results of each are similar from month to month and year to year, and there is definite agreement on temperature trends from decade to decade (Figure 1). Most importantly, they all agree global-average temperature has increased over the past century and this warming has been particularly rapid since the 1970s.
Correlation between the three global-average temperature records
Figure 1. A clear correlation can be seen between the three global-average temperature records, which were created independently. They all show a marked warming trend, particularly over the past three decades. Data provided courtesy of NCDC/NESDIS/NOAA and NASA GISS.How are they made?
Tens of thousands of temperature observations are taken across the globe, on land and at sea, each day. Land stations use these daily readings to create a monthly average (see boxed text), which is then sent off for use by climate researchers. Individual ship and buoy observations are transmitted on the Global Telecommunication System. These figures are checked before they are used to calculate the global-average temperature.
The monthly updates are combined with archives of historical observations that have been gathered over the past 160 years. The historical data are adjusted to minimise the effects of changes in the way measurements were made.
Each of the three global temperature centres uses different observation sets, although there are large overlaps in the information used. Each centre also has its own methods for checking and processing data, as well as for making the final calculation.
The HadCRUT3 record, which is produced by the Met Office in collaboration with the Climatic Research Unit, takes in observations from about 2,000 land stations each month. The figures for each one are checked both by computer and manually to find and remove any problems. Sea-surface temperature observations come from about 1,200 drifting buoys deployed across the world's oceans and around 4,000 ships in the Voluntary Observing Ship programme. There are also numerous moored buoys in the tropics and in coastal regions, principally around the US. Together they take around 1.5 million observations each month. These are checked by computer and any obviously inaccurate readings are excluded.
For all three global average temperature records, the 2009 value is based on data from January to October only.
NCDC dataset: Smith, T. M., et al. (2008), Improvements to NOAA's Historical Merged Land-Ocean Surface Temperature Analysis (1880-2006), J. Climate, 21, 2283-2293. NCDC data are available online.
GISS dataset: Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, M. Sato, M. Imhoff, W. Lawrence, D. Easterling, T. Peterson, and T. Karl, 2001: A closer look at United States and global surface temperature change. J. Geophys. Res. 106, 23947-23963. GISS data are available online.
Anomalies
Absolute temperatures are not used directly to calculate the global-average temperature. They are first converted into ‘anomalies’, which are the difference in temperature from the ‘normal’ level. The normal level is calculated for each observation location by taking the long-term average for that area over a base period. For HadCRUT3, this is 1961–1990.
For example, if the 1961–1990 average September temperature for Edinburgh in Scotland is 12 °C and the recorded average temperature for that month in 2009 is 13 °C, the difference of 1 °C is the anomaly and this would be used in the calculation of the global average.
One of the main reasons for using anomalies is that they remain fairly constant over large areas. So, for example, an anomaly in Edinburgh is likely to be the same as the anomaly further north in Fort William and at the top of Ben Nevis, the UK’s highest mountain. This is even though there may be large differences in absolute temperature at each of these locations.
The anomaly method also helps to avoid biases. For example, if actual temperatures were used and information from an Arctic observation station was missing for that month, it would mean the global temperature record would seem warmer. Using anomalies means missing data such as this will not bias the temperature record.
How do we know they are accurate?
Firstly, great care is taken to ensure the observations that form the basis for a global-average temperature are accurate. Each observation station follows international standards for taking observations set out by the World Meteorological Organization.
Each national met service provides information about how its data are collected and processed, thus helping to ensure consistency. This includes recording information about the local environment around the observation station and any changes to that environment. This is important as it can affect temperature measurements. For example, new buildings near an observation station can increase the night-time temperature readings.
While every effort is made to detect and remove errors in the data, scientists accept there will inevitably be some uncertainty in collecting so much information. There are additional uncertainties because temperatures over large areas of the earth are not observed as a matter of routine. Efforts are made to take these into account by factoring the uncertainty into global-average temperature calculations, which means we end up with a temperature range rather than one definite figure (Figure 1). Importantly, even with the temperature ranges, the global warming observed over the past century far outstrips the uncertainties.
The three independent global-average temperature records show that there has been warming in the Earth’s climate since pre-industrial times. The warming has been particularly rapid since the 1970s. The records also clearly show each decade since the 1970s has been successively warmer than the last, including the decade since 2000. Changes in temperature observed in surface data records are corroborated by measurements of temperatures below the surface of the ocean, by records of temperatures in the troposphere recorded by satellites and weather balloons, in independent records of air temperatures measured over the oceans and by records of sea-surface temperatures measured by satellites. Indirect evidence of warming can be seen in the reductions in Arctic sea-ice, sea-level rise, reduction in glacier volume and in phenological records, for example the dates on which leaves, flowers and migratory birds appear.
via metoffice.gov.uk
Confused By Google Wave?
It appears that most people are. What I'm going to attempt to do for you here is not a review or a how to... That would be pointless. It's not a released product yet so it could change drastically and suddenly at any point. What I shall be doing is giving you my take on what Google Wave is in it's most basic form, what it can be used for and the concept of the wave it's self.
NOT A Social Network
Whenever I'm helping someone get to grips with Wave, one of the first questions they ask is how they find other users or friends. Well, you don't. I'm not saying you "can't" because there *is* a social aspect to it but it's not a social network, it's a communication tool. You don't trawl around the email network looking for email addresses to add... Think of Wave as being email 2.0. Email with benefits. If you're a web forum user you can also see it as being like a forum on demand!
Collaboration
Sure you can use Wave to talk to an individual, just like email but it really comes into it's own when you want to collaborate on something as a group. If a person has an idea they can start a wave about said idea and invite other contacts into the discussion. Just like CCing someone in an email but again better. It's better because they can be brought into the conversation at any point and see the whole conversation as it happened. Using the "Playback" feature, they can also see how the conversation evolved post by post. Particularly useful if a conversation has multiple threads.
Threads
Real life conversations are not perfectly linear. They have multiple threads. Something said earlier in a conversation might be revisited later etc. By having a threaded view you can respond to anything and interject at any point in the conversation but unlike real life conversations, this need not cause the main thread to go off topic. By using playback, you can see when and how various subtopics were started.
That's All... For Now
I'm not going to say any more. The purpose of this article is to de-confuse. If you want to learn more, Google it.
Sixth Sense, la nueva tecnología del MIT Media Lab
“Sixth Sense” es un invento revolucionario que nos permite relacionarnos con nuestro entorno de una forma nunca vista antes. Sixth Sense añade un sexto sentido a nuestra percepción, a cómo interactuamos con nuestro mundo y la realidad, enriqueciéndola y añadiendo información útil y relevante a nuestros actos más cotidianos: leer el periódico, comprar en el supermercado, hacer fotos, etc.
Sixth Sense es un colgante con una cámara y un proyector conectados a un teléfono móvil. La cámara detecta los movimientos de las manos y en función de nuestros gestos y cómo interactuamos con los objetos, el proyector superpone a nuestra visión del mundo, fotografías, videos, textos, mapas, juegos, y todo tipo de información contextual que descarga de internet y enriquece nuestra percepción.
Las posibilidades que abre Sixth Sense son inimaginables y promete aplicaciones en todos los campos de la actividad humana: educación, medios de comunicación, ocio, consumo, turismo, etc. Abre también nuevas oportunidades aún por explorar para la publicidad y la comunicación.
Sixth Sense es además multi-usuario, ofreciéndonos la posibilidad de interactuar y colaborar con otras personas en tiempo real. Todavía es un prototipo y su coste actual de producción ya es reducidísimo: apenas 350 dólares. Sixth Sense está basado en código abierto y estará disponible para todo el mundo en tan sólo un mes. Ha sido ideado por un estudiante genial llamado Pranav Mistry del Fluid Interfaces Group en el MIT Media Lab.
Espero que este descubrimiento te haya inspirado y te aporte nuevas ideas. Y tú… ¿para qué imaginas Sixth Sense?
Este artículo también lo hemos publicado en Yorokobu
Compártelo: 
The art of public speaking from one of its masters
Millions of people consider public speaking a fate worse than death. But if you occupy any type of leadership position it’s inevitable that you’re going to be asked to stand up before a group – large or small – to deliver a speech. The careers of most executives advance or stall based on how well they communicate in a variety of forms. Public speaking performances are the riskiest of all, but they also give you a chance to make a very big impact. Being a sought-after public speaker gives you and your company a cachet that would otherwise be absent. When you do speak publicly you want your voice to be brimming with confidence and power. One of the best places to look for guidance in these matters is the late Jack Valenti, former chief of staff to President Lyndon Johnson but better know in the latter portion of his life as chairman and CEO of the Motion Picture Society of America . Suave and silver-tongued, Valenti was renowned for his public speaking abilities. Whether donned in a tuxedo for the Academy Awards or in a basic business suit for his many appearances on the rubber-chicken circuit, he always presented himself and his thoughts flawlessly. Valenti was so well known for his talents at the podium that he wrote a book on the subject titled Speak Up with Confidence. It might surprise you to know that Jack Valenti preached that 20 minutes was the absolute maximum for any speech. That’s quite a contrast to the politicians and keynote speakers of all stripes who routinely devour a full hour of the audience’s time. Valenti believed in economy. It is best to leave an audience wanting more, not glancing at their watches and negotiating with their bladders. Valenti also memorized all of his speeches, just as stage actors commit their scripts to memory, so he could enunciate them without using notes. He was full of many good ideas for turning people into effective public speakers. Here are some of his core suggestions:
- While drafting your speech, keep the paragraphs short.
- Limit each paragraph to just one topic.
- Put two spaces between each graph so they stand on their own.
- Make the first sentence of each graph the key line that opens the door to the rest of what you have to say on that topic, and have these key lines absolutely fixed in your mind. That way, even if you can’t remember the full paragraph you’ll be able to improvise based on the opening line.
- To memorize your speech, repeat aloud the first two paragraphs over and over until committed to memory. After that turn your attention to the next two graphs and do the same until they’re also etched in your mind. Then put the first four paragraphs together and articulate them repeatedly until memorized. Continue adding two graphs at a time.
- You’ll quickly be able to speak with confidence the first six paragraphs of the speech. “A strange thing happens as you go about this,” Valenti says. “As you gain confidence in your ability to remember, the speed with which the speech progresses picks up considerably. You begin making measurable progress. The memorization becomes less drudging and less daunting. Your exhilaration level rises rapidly.”
- Read your entire speech two or three times, then read each paragraph over and over by themselves. Do this, he says, because the mind is like a camera. You can lift your gaze from the paper and almost see the paragraph in your retina while looking towards the audience. It’s the “photographing” of each paragraph that will make you a good or great speaker.
- Consider underlining or using capital letters to emphasize key words or ideas.
- Use dashes to indicate where you should pause. There are likely to be many dashes because that’s what gives your speech the kind of rhythm and pacing that takes it to a higher level.
- Use strategic pauses to verbally lift out special phrases that help add emphasis and understanding to the points you’re making.
- Speak into a recorder to practice your vocal intonations and rhythm.
- Rehearse in front of a mirror to practice making eye contact.
- Time yourself to keep track of the length of your speech.
- Keep your speech short so you can finish with a “climax opportunity.” In other words, stop talking when your listeners want and expect you to keep going.
- The shorter the speech the greater your odds of success, according to Valenti, because it’s difficult to make a bad speech out of a short speech.
- Pick out several audience members and speak directly to them. Otherwise audience members will eventually notice that you’re just gazing out at a formless mass rather than connecting with people.
- When you make eye contact your nervousness will fade because your speech becomes a one-on-one conversation, which is our natural manner of speaking.
- Believability is more easily attained when you appear to be speaking for yourself, rather than mouthing words like a ventriloquist’s dummy. For that reason, Valenti suggests delivering your speech without notes rather than reading from prepared text. “Speaking without notes is the most powerful form of communication,” Valenti writes in his book. “You have full command of the audience and nothing to interfere with what you’re saying. You’re looking at the audience … with no paper barriers.”
- Once you have the entire speech assembled, repeat it during informal opportunities. Valenti would repeat his speeches in the car, the shower, etc. He usually kept a copy handy so if memory failed he could glance at the written text.
- Don’t stress if you accidentally leave something out. Your audience won’t know anything’s been omitted.
- It’s especially important to speak directly to your audience while delivering your final paragraph. That final point should be an “interlocking embrace between you and your audience” with no distractions – not even a fleeting glance at your notes.
Implicit in all this advice is Jack Valenti’s steadfast belief that being thoroughly prepared is the best insurance policy against stage fright and poor performance. How do you prepare for public speaking engagements? How do you delivery a punch to your audience? Let us know in the comment field below.
People are Strange
R. B. George: "He thinks of his (interpersonal) communication as abstract art..."
Simply Effective: " How to Cut Through Complexity in Your Organization and Get Things Done"
ISBN 978 1 4221 8114 0
Ron Ashkenas is the co-author of The Boundaryless Organization and The GE Work-Out - both fascinating reviews of how major Companies make things happen in an increasingly complicated world. In the new book, published December 2009, Ashkenas sets out a set of diagnostics, tools and processes to help us deal with complexity on a day-to-day basis.
He identifies 4 major causes of complexity:
- Structural Mitosis - constant change in the way organizations are structured
- Management Behaviour - which wastes time and which confuses the issues
- Product & Service Proliferation - which makes focusing and thus managing the whole ever more difficult
- Process Evolution - as businesses use new and varying approaches to solve problems - processes need streamlining
By his own admission, Ashkenas does not set out to create lots of new tools. Rather, he is focused on ensuring that we have the context for simplicity clearly understood so that we start to create effective response strategies - and then applying the most proven approaches to help get results. The book is liberally laced with good case studies, from GE, Conagra, Cisco, J&J and others. And at the end of each chapter there is a helpful checklist of actions that can be taken.
For example, in the chapter on "Product and Service Proliferation", Ashkenas encourages us to use effective Portfolio Analysis to identify where to focus, rationalise our brand SKU's, and use Customer Design Partnering to be sure we are meeting the most important needs. And in "Streamlining Processes", Ashkenas urges us to use Best Practice, Process Mapping (to make explicit what is implicit or taken for granted in an organization) and, of course, proven techniques such as Six Sigma and Lean. You've also got to smile when you read about "Death by PowerPoint" when he is discussing ineffective Management behaviour.
Stepping back, Ashkenas proposes a "Simple Strategy for Simplicity", in a five step loop.
- Declare Simplicity a Business Imperative
- Restructure the work and consequent organization structure to reduce complexity
- Achieve early results ("quick wins") through process and product simplification
- Sustain Momentum through clear and constant Communication
- Repeat over time
This is a good, clear and helpful book, and the action plans suggested will definitely start to clear away the organizational clutter that we all face every day.
If I have a critique it is that Ashkenas could have gone further in two areas. First, to make even more of the power of Customer Insight in driving better business decisions and thus helping to design more effective processes. Using a "customer lens" can really break through some of the old paradigms. I have especially seen this applied in retailing, where getting the entire enterprise focused on and rewarded by customer results can be a breakthrough strategy and a clear focus for operational excellence.
And, secondly, Ashkenas only deals lightly with the emerging knowledge we have on how Social Networks create highly efficient and effective communication vehicles. He is not alone in this, as most writers still follow the "Structure follows Strategy" dictum. Yet network science is beginning to suggest common approaches that can be used independently of the actual purpose of the Enterprise.
Still, that is for future books. For today, I can fully recommend "Simply Effective" as a well-researched, well-written book packed with helpful ideas for action. A quick read, but a useful handbook to have on your desk to dip into as your work progresses.
Reintroduction of LifeSprings using innovative Prezi
Given the ability of social media to "push" one's information to the other media services one uses, I recently found myself curious as to how all of it hung together in my case. So I developed a presentation below with Prezi. It shows how LifeSprings here at Posterous sends my information to the other social media services I use. (LinkedIn is not included.)
Prezi is an alternative to the linear creation and presentation of slides using Powerpoint or similar software. In Prezi one creates in a free-form approach only one "slide" (though to call it a slide is a misnormer) that contains everything and then one zooms in and out and around to show the informational elements in a narrative, linear fashion.
Prezi permits improved display of the whole presentation in relationship to the parts (context) and relationships between the parts over standard linear approaches like PP. The unstructured creation canvas on which one develops the presentation also seems to facilitate brainstorming presentation ideas. There one isn't constrained by a set of sequential, lockstep slide templates (or bullet point prompts) and can easily add or then organize ideas as they arise. The structure of a presentation grows out of the thought process of entering and organizing information.
In addition, Prezi was designed to be used as a visual tool to support the speakers verbalizations and who is the focus of the presentation - the inverse is typical with most PP focused presentation.
This presentaton to LifeSprings is a first venture with Prezi for me. It was fairly easy to learn though it did take some time. I created the prezi below in about 2 hours. Prezi does require a different novel mode of thinking (non-linear) in the stage of presentation creation (unstructured) vs. the standard (structured) approach that takes awhile with which to feel comfortable - I'm still working on it. I'm looking forward to trying Prezi with other material and presentation requirements.
The Google Story
Google UK's YouTube channel posted a video that highlights some of the most interesting events from Google's history. "From Stanford to Mountain View and around the world, featuring many different products, starting with BackRub (Search) up to Google Wave, StreetView and Chrome."
Workshop on communications evaluation « intelligent measurement
Gellis Communications and myself are happy to share the presentation slides used during the workshop – just see below (these were combined with practical exercises – write to me if you would like copies)
Entry Filed under: Campaign evaluation, Communication evaluation, Evaluation methodology, Evaluation reporting, Evaluation tools (surveys, interviews..), PR evaluation, Trainings, Seminars & Conferences. .
