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Comcast-NBCU: The Winners, Losers and Unknowns

This is good analysis:

With Comcast's acquisition of NBCU finally official this morning (technically, it's not an acquisition, but rather the creation of a JV in which Comcast holds 51% and GE 49%, until GE inevitably begins unwinding its position), it's time to assess the winners, losers and unknowns from the deal, the biggest the media industry has seen in a long while. I listened to the Comcast investor call this morning with Brian Roberts, Steve Burke and Michael Angelakis and reviewed their presentation.

Read story here.

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Comcast takes control of NBC, promises not to crush Hulu 'like a bug' -- Engadget

via engadget.com

Despite what Comcast says, I don't like this deal, not a bit. Here is the key point:

"NBC has been careful not to put too much cable content on the Internet. We think that's a smart strategy...

It's simple logic. Comcast, under their current business model, has little to gain from pushing Internet TV forward. They will do enough to prevent people from freaking out but they will hold things at bay. I think a distributor like Comcast owning the content is a conflict of interest and not at all consumer friendly. This is good for nobody but Comcast.

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Comcast Naming Its TV Everywhere Service 'Xfinity', Launching in 10 Days

I guess Comcast's original name "OnDemand Online" (or ODOL, as they called it internally) felt too big company-ish. But I'm not yet sold on Xfinity -- feels a bit forced.

This new name / brand is specifically for it's TV Everywhere service on Fancast.com. On other sites, like CBS.com, it will be named something different. TV Everywhere branding is going to be decided by the site publisher, apparently, which makes sense to me.

Story: http://paidcontent.org/article/419-comcast-naming-its-tv-everywhere-service-xfinity/

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Comcast to Buy NBC Universal

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Comcast Buys NBC! So Many Interesting Questions to Now Consider

CNBC broke the news today: http://www.cnbc.com/id/34225581

We will have a solid year to wait for this deal to pass through all the regulatory hoops and hurdles.

That will give us time to consider so many really interesting questions:

• What will this mean for Hulu? What will happen to NBC's 30%stake in Hulu, the sworn enemy of Comcast?
• Will DirecTV and other MSOs respond in-kind by buying up content as well?
• Will this start a content land-grab among the MSO's who fear their bread-and-butter distribution business will evaporate over the next decade?
• How will owning NBC impact Comcast's On Demand Online (TV Everywhere) initiative to bring TV online?
• Will this deal keep Steve Jobs up at night? Will Comcast pull NBC shows from iTunes (again)?

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Vivendi, GE agree to interim payment on NBCU stake. Comcast deal coming nxt wk?

This should clear the way for a pre-Thanksgiving announcement, which seems to be a driver!

http://us.mobile.reuters.com/m/FullArticle/p.rdt/CMERGER/nmergersNews_uUSWEN683820091120

Sent via BlackBerry

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TV Everywhere Getting Closer to Reality, Thanks to thePlatform

Comcast-owned ThePlatform is arguably the top Online Video Platform (OVP) provider, and almost certainly is within the TV industry.  They unseated encumbent Brightcove over the last year by launching Hulu.com, CBS.com, TV.com, and a slew of other broadcast and cable TV networks. They announced even more TV programmer customers today (most of whom are owned by Comcast) as well as Rogers, Canada's largest cable operator.  ThePlatform also powers online video for Comcast's largest competitors: Time Warner Cable, Cox, and CableVision.

Today, thePlatform made a major announcement that brings TV Everywhere a HUGE step closer to reality.

ThePlatform is launching a cable Authentication & Authorization component to its white-label video publishing product that will enable programmer web sites (HBO.com, Showtime.com, NBC.com, etc) to publish their premium TV shows on their sites, requiring the user to authenticate himself as a cable subscriber with access to that channel (ie, you can only watch HBO shows online if you pay for HBO through your cable provider).  Enforcing this authentication ensures everyone in the media supply chain gets credit for that view, and money is transferred accordingly.  To that end: an integration with Nielsen to directly track views would be a killer strategic move by thePlatform! 

This solution also has the following compelling side benefits for the MSO's and TV Programmers:

• Keeping cable subscribers happy and hooked (cable companies fear that free online TV services like Hulu may result in cable subscribers canceling their pay TV services).
• Upselling subscriptions: if I'm a Comcast subscriber but don't pay for the HBO cable package, I may be compelled to sign up now if it means I can watch all HBO shows whenever I want, online (or on my HD TV via Boxee or the like).
• Upselling content: if I am not an HBO subscriber but want to watch just a single HBO show, now there is a mechanism to buy shows a la cart.  This is the model that Disney currently loves.

Here's a nice diagram of how this new component works:

ThePlatform is initially providing this technology only to TV Programmers for their sites (broadcast networks and cable channels).  That's a great first step, though I believe the killer app will be making this capability available to any web site, not just NBC.com or HBO.com, etc. I wrote about this just yesterday.

Regarding the rest of thePlatform's competition in the OVP space...  DigitalSmiths, despite its strong TV Everywhere positioning campaign last month, hasn't released any technology yet that addresses the initiative's largest challenges: authentication and authoriziation.  Meanwhile, Ooyala and Brightcove appear to be sitting on the TV Everywhere sidelines.

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Comcast's "TV Everywhere" Will NOT Be Everywhere

One step at a time, I understand.  But I believe it's critical that TV Everywhere becomes an "open" premium video distribution platform available for any web publisher, on any web site. 

Consumers will demand the freedom to watch Entourage in their preferred environment, be it Hulu.com, Facebook, Boxee, etc... not just on Fancast.com or HBO.com.  That is the promise of TV Everywhere.  Universal authentication will make this a technical possibility. It is ultimately the right thing to do and will benefit the entire media ecosystem, starting with the paying customer.

Clearly Comcast, Time Warner, and the other MSO's need to weigh the benefit of providing their subscribers a good experience (in the form of choice) versus the economic benefit of locking their users to their own sites (or programmer sites, such as HBO.com, CBS.com, Showtime.com, etc). 

The MSO's have a reputation for opting for the economic benefit over the user experience benefit, which has really hurt their brand image.

Creating a "win" for the user should be the top priority for Comcast and Time Warner.  Remember, TV Everywhere was born out of a defensive move to stem cable cord cutting.

I understand that we are just in the first inning of TV Everywhere, and these are the necessary first steps.  However, I would like to hear Comcast and Time Warner talk about the longer-term vision for where this is all going.

Here is Comcast's Amy Banse articulating their near-term TV Everywhere (OnDemand On Line) rollout:

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The Comcast-NBC Deal is a DEFENSIVE Move by Comcast. It's about Survival.

The Wall Street Journal ran a story today discussing the potential regulatory challenges to a Comcast acquisition of NBC Universal.

What these stories seem to miss is that this a DEFENSIVE move by Comcast, not an aggressive move against its rivals.

Comcast is NOT buying NBC to seek an "unfair" advantage in its cable markets (though that's not to say they wouldn't hesitate to pursue such advantages if they were available).

The real motivation behind this deal (I believe) is survival. Comcast understands that the price point for distributing TV into homes is going to fall dramatically in the coming years. Comcast's 3 distribution products, Voice - TV - Internet, are collapsing into just one, single product: Internet. This poses a huge threat to Comcast's top line.

As such, Comcast is hedging through diversification into content, moving up the media value chain. Comcast will be looking to replace lost revenue in distribution with revenue from content (advertising, subscriptions, etc). At it's core, it's that simple.

Therefore, I believe Comcast will be willing to live with any reasonable regulatory restrictions the government slaps on this deal.

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A box for Boxee

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